Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Bowers to Run in CD 1

Sources confirm that former Senate Majority Leader* Rusty Bowers will soon announce that he is running for the District 1 Congressional seat currently held by Ann Kirkpatrick. 

Like any race, the most important considerations are the math and the issues.  I think Bowers is strong on both.  Let's start with the math.  In 2008, Sydney Hay lost to Ann Kirkpatrick by about 45,000 votes.  That equates to a 16% loss in the worst year for Republican Congressional candidates since Watergate.

 Conventional analysis would say that Bowers starts with Hay's base and then adds the folks who voted for change but have been put off by the Obama/ Reid/Pelosi troika.  Then let's speak the unspeakable--all other things being equal, LDS constituents will support LDS candidates.  District 1 has a huge LDS population and many of them are Democrats. 

That's the conventional wisdom and it's OK as far as it goes, but that's not why you pay the big bucks to read Espresso Pundit each day...Ok, I digress.  The real issue is turnout.  Check out the two charts. (click to enlarge.) 

Hay received more votes in 2008 (nearly 110,000) than Renzi received in 2006 (under 106,000).  Hay's vote total would have prevailed in 2006.  She lost because an extra 75,000 people turned out to vote and most of them voted Democratic.

Who were those people?

They're young, idealistic Obama supporters who aren’t going to vote in 2010.  Those voters aren’t coming back to the polls in a non-presidential year and they sure as heck aren’t coming back without Obama on the ticket.   Forget about the fact that independent voters and moderates of both parties feel like they were sold a bill of goods with Obama’s “change” mantra.  Forget about the Bailouts, nationalizing the auto and health care industries.  Forget about Cap and Trade and the other environmental restrictions that are reminiscent of the restrictions that have already devastated rural Arizona.  Forget about the radical environmentalist forest policy—"keep it pristine until it all burns".   Forget about the percentage of the electorate who—like Bowers--are 4th or 5th generation LDS Arizonans.  Focus on turnout.  The extra 75,000 young idealistic voters who showed up to vote for Obama aren’t going to be there in 2010.  In 2010, CD 1 is a Republican seat.

Of course, we can't ignore the issues completely.  There are a few that will be important.

First, let's start with the red Herring.  "Golly, Bowers doesn't live in the district."  Hmm, No Cigar.  Bowers has lived in the same home for decades and it has variously been in and out of the district.  So in 1992, when he was elected to the Legislature, Karan English was his Congresswoman.  They both represented constituents in the District.  Following English's defeat after one term, Hayworth became Bowers' Congressman until Bowers' house was redistricted out of the District in 2002.  Now his house is in Flake's District.

Bowers was raised in Chino Valley near Prescott and has roots in the District that go back four generations.  It would be pretty tough to characterize him as a carpet bagger.  He has owned a home near Globe for about eight years and will presumably re-register and declare the Globe home his primary residence. 

The point is legally irrelevant because Congressmen don't have to live in the district that they represent.  However, a true carpet bagger (like Renzi) has to make a case to the electorate that he should be elected anyway.  Bowers won't have that problem. 

Then of course, there's the environment.  Kirkpatrick will try to portray Bowers as the great dismantler of the protections that generations of environmentalists have been pushing since the days of John Muir.  But Bowers isn't so easy to pigeonhole.  Check out this Phoenix New Times article from 1997; Bowers was on the cover and a framed issue hangs in his office. 

State Senator Russell Bowers is best known for his archconservatism, his assault on environmental regulations and . . . his fine art?

Indeed, the professional sculptor doesn't fit the narrative. 

Besides, I think north eastern Arizona would appreciate a referendum on modern environmental policy.  Let's talk about Goshawks--hunted in Europe but "endangered" here.  Let's talk about families whose grandparents used to work in saw mills, but whose kids work at Starbucks serving Lattes to the  Maricopa County residents who spend weekends at their cabins in the pristine forests that have become their playground. 

Actually, the race won't be a referendum on the environment, it will be a referendum on Barack Obama.  It will be referendum on perfectly good American Cars--better than the ones most people in District 1 drive--being destroyed and replaced by Japanese imports.  It will be a referendum on Wall Street Salaries, Global Warming, GM (Government Motors) and national healthcare.

And it will be a referendum on constituent service--which is why the RNCC will run the last 30 seconds of this video a couple hundred thousand times and the phrase "What a Nitwit" will resonate throughout the district.  Because, frankly, when many of the residents of District 1 look at Congress, they must shake their heads and wonder if indeed, they are all nitwits. 

In fact it seems like Kirkpatrick would be wise to buy the domain name "WhataNitwit.com"

Oops.  Too Late.

To be sure, incumbency has its advantages; that's why there are so few one-term Congressmen--except of course, Jim McNulty, Karan English and Sam Coppersmith.  But the issues, the momentum and the math look good for the challengers in 2010--especially in District 1. 

*Footnote:  Rusty may be most famous for the time he served as the so called "Senate Majority Leader" but the highlight of his legislative career was obviously his stint as Vice Chairman of the House Government Operations Committee during the time that I served as Gov Op Chairman. 

Tribune Parent to declare Bankruptcy.

Tribune Parent to declare bankruptcy.

Freedom Communications Inc., which publishes the Orange County Register, is expected to file this week to reorganize under Chapter 11 of U.S. bankruptcy law, people familiar with the situation told The Wall Street Journal. Freedom, which reports annual revenue of about $700 million, has reached agreement with its lenders to restructure its debt, the people told the paper. The Irvine, Calif., company, which also publishes more than 30 other papers and owns eight TV stations, has been owned for more than 70 years by the Hoiles family, the Journal reported. The investment firms Blackstone Group and Providence Equity Partners acquired 40% of the company in 2004 for about $460 million, the Journal reported.

The Answer: 2010 or 2014.

The Question: "Hey, Ken, when are you running for Governor?"

I'm at a water conference in Tucson and it seems like most of state government is here.   Ken Bennett was the lunch speaker and before he started,  former State Rep.  Jean McGrath yelled out the question and the title of this post was his answer.  I thought it was a pretty interesting exchange.  (His speech wasn't bad either.)

Huppenthal Innocent on All Counts

Well, that was a waste of time and money. 

Let's hope that the failed attempt to prosecute Sen. Huppenthal is the last vestige of the scorched Earth tactics that the State Democratic Party waged in the last cycle. 

You will recall that by spending nearly $4 million on cookie cutter hit pieces, Team Napolitano managed to actually lose two House seats and one Senate Seat, thus wasting a once-in-a-generation opportunity to actually talk about issues and perhaps make some headway.

Last January I pointed out how one of those scorched Earth tactics--the Crazy AZ website--was actually a benefit to Republicans because it showed the Democratic Party's true colors and gave notice to Republican legislators that despite all the talk of bipartisanship they were positioning themselves to draw one more red X on Republican Legislators. 

To their credit, the Democrats have taken the Crazy Site down and Emily Bitner has moved on.  Now with the court deciding the obvious--Huppenthal had permission to remove the Democratic Slap sign--the Dem's disastrous 2008 cycle is finally over. 

Let's hope 2010 is about issues...after all, one more junk yard dog cycle like the last one and the Republicans will have two thirds in each chamber.  And what fun would that be?

Arizona Schools Better than Half the Nation

This has been a great week for myth busting.  I've been saying for years that exercise--while wonderful--doesn't help you lose weight.  Did you see the cover of Time last week?  Wow, what do you know, exercise doesn't help you lose weight. 

Then last week, I pointed out that Arizona schools are above average and what do you know, SAT scores just came out and indeed, Arizona kids--once again--score in the top half.

Here's how the Arizona Class of 2009 stacks up on the SAT:

• Reading: 516. National average: 501.

• Math: 521. National average: 515.

• Writing: 497. National average: 493.

Arizona's education establishment and their media enablers continue to chant the strange mantra "our product sucks, but at least our costs are high."  They insist on claiming that Arizona Schools are lousy because (they argue) that the funding is low. This is, of course, nonsense on both fronts.  Arizona schools are good and the funding is middle of the pack. 

But what if the funding really was low?  Wouldn't it be great that we have managed to produce high test scores for less money?  Or maybe what education reformers have been saying for years is actually true--there's little correlation between performance and dollars.  That's why Utah and Vermont have such great schools even thought they don't spend much money and Washington DC and New York City have such crappy schools even though they spend a fortune. 

Myth's die hard, but eventually the facts prevail.  Time magazine eventually came around on the exercise myth...we'll see how many more years it takes before they reevaluate some education myths. 

They Can't Go One Day with out Scarpinato

The Arizona Daily Star's Daniel Scarpinato is leaving to run the Yellow Sheet and now the entire Star website is down.  I'm sure they will get it fired up eventually, but we'll see if they can do the same for their political coverage. 

I'm not the only one...

I've been saying for months that 2010 is looking a lot like 1994.  It's good to know that I'm not the only one.  Here's an interesting article. 

History often gives the appearance of repeating itself, and 2009 seems to be repeating 1993 with a vengeance. In both years, a talented young Democrat assumed the presidency due in large part to an economic downturn, thus ending a sustained period of Republican control

Both new presidents had deep roots in the radical left. Yet both had campaigned as a new breed of post-ideological candidate who would bring Americans together. Immediately upon taking office, however, both began pushing a left-liberal agenda.

In both cases, the centerpiece of that agenda was overhauling our health care system. The two presidents went about this task in different ways. In 1993, President Bill Clinton and his wife took control of the process; in 2009, President Barack Obama let Congress control it.

When the Elephants Fight, the Grass Gets Bent.

I've been busy lately.  The Corporation Commission is holding hearings on an Arizona Public Service rate settlement and I've been attending the hearings and following on the listen line.  The stakes are very high.  The company will argue that if the ACC rejects the settlement, the company could be downgraded to junk status. 

Four of the five ACC Commissioners are former Legislators.   Republicans have three seats on the ACC and two of those members came straight out of the legislature--Pierce came straight out of Legislative leadership.

The legislature, of course, has been in full meltdown trying to get a budget to the Governor.   Republican leaders Burns and Adams have struggled and to get Gov. Brewer's sales tax on the ballot but don't have the votes.  Ironically, the only group who hates the sales tax more than Republican Legislators is...Democratic Legislators.  The state is bleeding red ink and Treasurer Martin is warning that he can't get short-term financing from banks who are unwilling to lend to Arizona if we don't have an approved budget.

After seven weeks of trying to get the votes, Republicans have sent Gov. Brewer nearly the same budget that they sent her in June and are hoping that she will sign it.  With the state on the brink of shut down the stakes are quite high. 

In the midst of this high octane, temper flaring, state shutdown mess, the Yellow Sheet reporter asks the APS Lobbyist--on the record--what he would advise the governor to do. 

Instead of saying "Gosh, I don't think this has anything to do with utility issues..."  He publicly advises the Governor to veto parts of the budget to maintain "leverage" on the House and Senate Leadership in order to increase her chances of getting a tax increase. 

From Friday's Yellow Sheet.

Marty Shultz told our reporter he would advise Brewer to sign the equalization repeal, but not the rest of the budget - or at least not all of it - in order to maintain leverage to pursue the sales tax increase she has clearly demonstrated is of utmost importance to her. “I think the governor should continue to pursue [the referral], if possible. I do think it’s the right thing to do,” he said.

I've actually left APS alone for a few years now and some of the company's higher ranking officials are actually speaking to me, which is very nice, but self immolation is hard to ignore. 

Why wade into this fight?  Why advise the brinkmanship/shutdown option? Why choose the Governor's position over the Legislature's position when four of your critical ACC votes are closely associated with the Legislative side?  More specifically, why support a sales tax increase that has almost no support among Legislative Republicans and literally zero support among Legislative Democrats--when four of the five ACC Commissioners are former legislators, all are likely to have strong opinions on the sales tax and all are likely to oppose it. 

Moreover, ACC Commissioners almost always come out of the legislature.  Who will be on the ACC in 2012 or 2014?  I have no idea, but there's a good chance that he or she either voted yes on the bill that Marty just advised Gov. Brewer to veto, or strongly opposes the sales tax increase that Marty thinks is "the right thing to do."

Why not simply smile and say "No Comment."

Sometimes I just shake my head in wonder.

Friends in High Places

Name dropping is my second favorite vice*, so I simply had to print this email.

I guess that Jan got home from a hard day's work, popped a cold one, cranked up the laptop and said "Dude, I'll see if Greg Patterson wants to be friends on Facebook."  Now I picture her sitting by the computer eagerly waiting for my confirmation.  Unwilling to let her sweat, I confirmed immediately.  I'm friend number 180. 

OK, so it's a nice fantasy.  I suppose the email was generated by an intern in some windowless office at Highground...but even that's cool.

Footnote:  When I mention that name dropping is my second favorite vice, people naturally assume that my favorite vice is coffee, but that's not true.  My favorite vice is actually even more addictive and satisfying.

1994 Redux

Since this is a local blog, I've avoided commenting on Obama's rough start, but one thing is becoming clear:  the team of Obama, Reid and Pelosi is doing more damage to the Democratic Party than even team Clinton's "Two For the Price of One" Hillary Care Debacle. 

Some of the signs were obvious pretty early.  Last May I pointed out that

Mark Twain famously said that "History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes." The last time that Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and the White House, they overreached. Even though Clinton was elected toward the end of a mild recession and the economy had substantially improved, the mid-term elections of 1994 provided the best Republican showing of the past century. You can chalk it up to a variety of factors--Hillary Care scared the moderates, Americans prefer divided government, Newt Gingrich is an evil genius--whatever, but the bottom line is that just when Democrats were riding high, they got a major thumping.

Now, Charlie Cook is sounding the alarm.

"These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low,"