It's a Republican Year.

Arizona Republicans have had a great night. 

On September 20th I predicted that it was going to be a Republican year in Arizona. I eventually came to realize that I was the only Republican who was optimistic about our chances, and now that we have some results, it appears that my prediction was remarkably accurate.

I don't usually write posts to simply say "I told you so" but I've been really disappointed by months of Republican teeth gnashing.  Now, with Republicans so focused on McCain's defeat, I wanted to take a moment and recap the night as it relates to Arizona

First let me set the stage.

You will recall, that Team Napolitano started the campaign season with the humiliation of not even being able to get TIME and the trust initiative on the ballot.  Then they spent hundreds of thousands of dollars backing moderate Republicans in the Primary.  All of her challengers and both of the incumbents lost. 

They then set their sights on the real prize--taking over the State House of Representatives.  All they had to do was "keep the seven seats they won in 2006 and add four more."  Back in July I commented on the futility of that strategy.

Incredibly, as of last Saturday, they thought the strategy was working so well that Senator Ken Cheuvront predicted that they would take over the Senate as well.

Indeed, the strategy was simple.  Team Napolitano took the unprecedented step of spending $1.2 million in 12 "swing" districts.  Most of the money went to awful hit pieces like the one at the left.

Last night, nearly all of her candidates lost by wide margins.

For example in District 9, Democrats and lobbyists have been calling Rep. Rick Murphy the "Dead Man Walking."  Murphy won by over 6,000 votes. 

John Huppenthal won by 13 points. Carl Seel won by 7,000 votes. 

Team Napolitano spent over $150K trying to take out one of the District 30 Republicans, but they won by over 4,000 votes.   

Montenegro--who was somehow "too conservative" to be elected--beat Nunez by 6,000 votes. (Have we finally put that tired "too conservative to get elected" canard to bed?)

In 2006, the much ballyhooed Phil Hettmansperger  lost to Warde Nichols by 832 votes, so Team Napolitano spent nearly $60,000 on his race and this year he lost by 1200 votes.

Incredibly, it looks like the Republicans have managed to hold on to a seat in District 25. 

It appears that she might have managed to defeat one challenger--Jeff Dial in District 20 is currently trailing by about 400 votes. (That race could still swing back.  For some reason tally is only at 98% of votes cast.)  I think that in about a week, we may learn that Dial has won.

Meanwhile, I predicted that Democrats would have a difficult time maintaining seats in Districts 10, 23, 24 and 26.

Here's what I wrote in my original post last September.

Republicans are favored in the Pinal County seat that Pete Rios has vacated in District 23.

Democrats will have trouble repeating their upset victories in the District 26 (Northern Tucson and Oro Valley).  Al Melvin has now managed to defeat both Toni Hellon and Pete Hershberger and should have no problem winning the Senate seat.  The House seat is likely to go Republican as well. 

Republicans will probably pick up a seat in District 24 (Yuma).  And if all three trends maintain their strength, then Republicans should regain a seat in District 10 as well. 

Astonishingly, at the time of this writing, every one of those predictions appears to have come to fruition.  Melvin is ahead of Cage in 26, and Republicans are indeed winning a seat in districts 26, 23, 24 and 10.

The only vulnerable seat that she managed to save was Meyer who defeated Altman in District 11.

Here was the main prediction in my September post.

If the three trends that I've described actually prove true on election day, then Republicans will gain at least two seats in the House and one in the Senate.

That appears to be pretty close to what actually happened.

Aside from taking over the House and Senate, Team Napolitano's other big goal was taking out County Attorney Andy Thomas.  Here's what I said in July.

Maricopa County Attorney:  Give me a break.  Thomas by double digits.

Well, it's looking like eight points.  Not quite double digits, but I'll take it. 

I have to say I'm disappointed that my friend David Schweikert didn't prevail.  Here's what I wrote in September.

If the trends hold and he doesn't get outspent 4 to 1, Schweikert should beat Mitchell. 

Actually, David was outspent nearly 10 to 1. 

Finally, let's not forget that I called Lane over Manross way back on July 8th.  Not only did Lane beat Manross soundly back in September, but he also appears to have defeated her again last night.

However the biggest victory for Arizona Republicans may be yet to come.  Two words:  Governor Brewer.

Governor Napolitano is facing a $2 billion deficit of her own making and a legislature that is more Republican, more conservative and more pissed off than it was a few days ago.

Republicans will have more members; moderate stalwarts Hershberger and O'Halleran were defeated, and Senate President Tim Bee is about to be replaced by the Governor's worst nightmare...Bob Burns.

The bottom line is that she's not going to stay and if she does stay, she's not going to be happy. 

So I have to say that this election turned out really well.  Winston Churchill said that there's nothing more exciting than to be shot at without result.

Well the Governor's Team shot at us in the initiatives; she shot at us in the Primary and she shot at us in the General, and the only thing she appears to have hit is her own foot.

So now the legislature is more solidly Republican and much more Conservative than at any time during her tenure, and while the state is bankrupt, it's likely to soon have a Republican Governor as well. 

To be sure, some of the results may change as the final votes are tallied, but I have to say that it's been a great night.

Comments

[MK]

You left out another win. Something about a hospital district.

[chris]

Greg, David was a bad candidate. If Mark Anderson wouldn't have entered the race in the Primary, I feel that Laura K would've handily beat Harry Mitchell. This state was primed to give back CD5 to the GOP, but Clud for Growth ruined our chances. Thanks alot, guys.

[Special Agent Johnny utah]

Personally, I would rather see Gov. Napolitano have to remain in AZ, clean up the mess she helped make, and suffer through the next couple of years as a Democratic governor with no money to spend. That would bring her approval rating, her reputation, and her political future down to a level more consistent with her performance in office. Her "rising star" status might start to look more like "shooting star."

If, on the other hand, she joins the Obama administration, she'll get to leave her mess for Republicans to clean up, add a few new bullet points to her resume, and position herself for a Senate run. Her star will still be on the rise.

Anybody want to see that?

[Stewie]

A big mistake they made was a Dist 30 pickup. They threw a lot of money into a very Republican district to get their single candidate in. A lot of money backed up by a Dem single shot campaign didn't get the job done.

[Nick]

While you may have done well in your prediction on the AZ legislature, what happened to Schweikert??

He lost to Mitchell by 9 points!! This race was not even close in a district that has a plus 13 in Republican voter registration...

And also the Tim Bee prediction... Giffords pretty much blew him out...

[TS]

The real story of Tuesday's results: The Republican brand as we've known it for the past 50 years is dead. The last vestiges cling to life in an ever-shrinking Deep South, Midwest Bible Belt and Mormon West — in other words, the least educated and least prosperous areas of the country. The rest of the nation has moved on, maybe for a generation.

As a disenchanted Republican, I've come to believe Barack Obama and an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress likely will have a far more beneficial effect on Arizona than anything Sheriff Joe or our $24,000-a-year part-timers under the Copper Dome will do over the next four years.

I congratulate you on your victory, Greg. But the "optimism" of your blog post is the equivalent of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

[Jim Torgeson]

I am actually amazed Greg was as correct as he was!

Schweiketr was outspent 10:1 by the Pelosi backed Michell machine.

I just wish Harry was who I thought he was rather than a partisan pawn.

How much was gained by he Dems in that $1.2M expense? Maybe District 20? If it takes that much to upset a Republican, are we really watching Democracy or are we witnessing some sort of big money attempt at takeover.

I think Clean Elections needs a HUGE reform. I think that spending on elections is way out of control (see Presidential lopsided spending also) and that media has skewed out voting.

This is a non-partisan viewpoint. How can a good candidate be expected to perform on, say, $40,000 when their opponent gets covered for, say, $130K?!

Same goes to Mitchell versus Schweikert. Whether you like the outcome or not, that much money changes perception. At least they were held back by CE fundraising rules, but it's still awfully difficult to comprehend the need to outspend someone by that much.

It's too early and I am "ranting," but it seems wrong, regardless of outcome.

[Simon says:]

1. Congratulations on your win Greg.
2. TS is mostly right.
3. The D30 candidate worked hard but she had the same issue that many of the others did. They were too liberal for their districts. Stewie is also mostly right.

[Timothy S. Carlson]

Can I move back to Arizona now?

Congratulations to all of the Conservatives to who won last night.

And special Congrats to Sheriff Joe and Andy Thomas. And to you, Greg.

Janet? Don't let the door hit you on the way out to your cabinet post.

[Exurban Jon]

And let me join the chorus of congratulation. Glad to see you win your race, Greg!

[todd]

Especially if Napolitano does leave, I will be very interested to see how the Republicans deal with the state budget. One would think there is a great deal of extravagant spending by the state, while the reality is we rank towards the bottom in spending in many areas so I am not sure where the cutting is going to start. Will they pass cuts which eliminate jobs, thereby adding to the unemployment rolls during the middle of a recession? WIll they cut indigent services at a time when there will most likely be more of a need than ever? Will the universities get a quarter of their budget cut and not be able to raise tuition? In the abstract massive cuts in government spending can be a popular position with many and it certainly makes for good campaign rhetoric. However, when the opportunity has actually been there, often times different results emerge. I wonder if a year from now we will actually see the implementation of policies that many on this blog would support, and if so, who will be in power the year after.

[ron]

Greg, Looking forward to a new county hospital - we need one.

[Commander-in-Chief]

Wow, it takes a brave soul and some pretty strong espresso to call it a good night for Republicans. Feel free to call me insanely idiotic or a comedian, as has been done in the past, but it looked like a really bad night for the Republicans to me.

Nails were hammered into the coffin of the Republican Party left and right. Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana turned blue by narrow margins. In the Southwest Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico turned blue by huge margins. A pretty ominous sign of what's to come for Arizona's Republicans when McCain is no longer on top of ticket. Mitchell, GIffords, and Kirkpatrick coasted to easy victories. As TS pointed out, the Republicans are now left with a shattered party hanging on to the rapidly shrinking bases of their once mighty religious, rural, and racist empire. There were some really alarming numbers in the exit polls last night. Under 30: 66 to 32 for Obama. Hispanics: 66 to 32 for Obama. African-Americans: 95 to 4 Obama. Just where in those numbers does anyone see a successful future for the Republican party as we now know it?

Acting President Obama is now President Elect Obama. Unelected President-in-Absentia George W. Bush is on vacation with Jimmy Hoffa at an undisclosed location, taking the concept of disappearance to a whole new level. My repeated attempts to warn conservatives that Bush was dragging his country down and taking his party along with it fell on deaf ears. My only hope for the next 10 weeks is that Obama quickly deploys whatever force is necessary to keep Bush and Cheney from burning up the entire record of their grossly illegal activities in the White House over the last eight years. Cheney's out back of the White House right now chopping wood for that big bonfire on the lawn that Nixon should have used to burn up the Watergate tapes.

Obama, by the way, is "unelectable no matter how many times he disowns his white grandmother." A snotty, racist remark the author of this blog ought to own up to and apologize for. While he's gloating about how accurate his predictions were.

I guess you can salvage something by pointing out that the Republicans held onto most of their bases in Maricopa county and in the legislature. It does seem a little odd to celebrate finally defeating Janet by having President Obama appoint her Attorney General. At this point I guess you've got to celebrate whatever you can.

I hate to poke so many holes in your optimism, but I don't think the Republican party in Arizona did itself much of a favor by purging nearly every moderate from their ranks. The face of the Republican party in Arizona now becomes Joe Arpaio, Randy Pullen, and Russell Pearce. Sure, Arpaio and Thomas won this time. Like Bush won in 2000. But please listen this time. Lining up behind racist immigrant bashing clowns will not be a successful long term strategy for the future. If last night's election proved anything, it's that racism is dead as a political force in America. The Republican party needs to face up to its racial problem, or die a slow painful death as the party of the Old White-Only America. The choice is yours.

[Name:]

They're going to have to rename it Arizona State Community College.

[ron]

How many times can you put a hot-button issue on the ballot to 'get out the base'?

I think we can already guess what the issue will be in 2010.

[Dave K.]

Congrats Greg! I said you were right when you made your predictions, and time has proven it.

Despite the usual ranting of the loony left, time will eventually prove the emptiness of the socialist philosophy as well. Much like the Carter debacle, once the shine has worn off, the rapture has died down, and actual policy making begins, buyer's remorse will most assuredly set in.

After four years of hard core socialism under BHO, I'm quite sure the country will again be ready for the next "Reagan Revolution".

Perhaps it will be a "Palin Revolution" this time? Then we may actually see the MSM curl up and die of fright ...

[Mesa Republican George]

I don't know which scares me more - Obama's socialism or Palin's christo-facism. Is Jeff Flake running in 2012?

[a. depaul]

Congratulations. Now for the hard part - we're expecting good things from you!

[Jack Woods]

AZ showed it's still a Red State.

The best thing that could have happened to the Republican Party both nationwide and the state party moving forward was for Barack Obama to win and the Democrats to control Congress.

A narrow McCain win would have another Republican overseeing a national economy in shambles. 2010 would be a slaughter for Republicans nationwide. Instead it will be Democrats at the helm while we have a housing and stock market that's in the toilet.

Already Obama has tried to lower expectations, even though he's positioned himself as some sort of savior for America.

One party rule doesn't last long, and I see the fickle American people quickly turning on Obama and Pelosi.

[muckraker]

Boy, talk about putting lipstick on a pig.

[Jen P.]

Anyone interested in joining us for post-election commentary by Senator Kyl tomorrow night (Nov. 6), registration is still open.

For details and registration: www.azfedsoc.org

[Thane Eichenauer]

I'm still waiting for the US Attorney report on the 2004 LD20 election ballots.

Perhaps they will impound this years ballots in order to find out who won (or keep someone from winning - you can't recount ballots you don't have).

[Mr. Conservative]

Greg,

I'm bummed out too over our friend, David Schweikert's loss too. Hopefully he'll run again & Bitter-Smith will stay out of the race... Glad to see you won your race for the hosptal board.

[NICK]

TS,

I will be interested in your thoughts about

"Barack Obama and an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress likely will have a far more beneficial effect"

when the Obama Bear Market Dow Jones level
is 5400!

[NICK]

Enjoy the cherry blossoms govenor jamit.
Some others will face the repair of Arizona.

[Jim Torgeson]

Dear Thane;

I too agree there was a complete lack of transparency in 2004. Dr. Jones studied the situation and concluded ballot tampering, but we will never know.

Today, there is a great deal more transparency, so the odds are much greater that we have a true count.

When the final ballots are counted, certainly it will shift more conservative, but how far is still to see.

What I find disappointing in the legislative races (20 included) was the amount of money dumped into them by the Democratic party. When you out spend an opponent so much, are you really getting your message out or are you attempting to buy a vote?

One thing everyone can come away with is that too much money is spent on politics and not enough time really looking at issues and plans.