Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Nasty Brutish and Short

The Napolitano administration appears to be winding down and Arizona Democrats have moved from denial to anger.  I've been getting feedback from rank and file Democrats and they are unbelievably ticked off that Gov. Napolitano may resign and leave Republicans in charge of state government.

Some Democrats have not been shy about expressing that anger publicly.  Here's an extraordinary report by KJZZ's Rene Gutel that aired on NPR. 

Gov. Napolitano's Move Leaves Some Arizonans Angry

With Democratic Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano moving to Washington to become Homeland Security Chief, she's leaving behind a state entirely under Republican control. Some local Democrats feel abandoned in the midst of a severe budget crisis.

If you want another example, check out this article by New Times owner Mike Lacey.  The headline sets the tone.

Janet Napolitano’s Sorry Service in Arizona Makes Her a Terrible Choice for Homeland Security Secretary.

Democrats are starting to realize that the Napolitano administration's legacy will be like placing a hand in a bucket of water.  Sure, there's displacement and motion while the hand is actually in the bucket, but once it's removed, a few ripples are the only indication that it was ever there and those ripples soon die out. 

Her spending programs--all-day kindergarten, Biotech, shinny university buildings--were an illusion built on bubble revenue.  Her refusal to trim spending when the market went south means that the eventual cuts will be drastic.  Moderate Republicans who enabled her 2004 budget shenanigans were wiped out in the 2004 election and the moderate Republicans who enabled her 2008 budget shenanigans were wiped out in the 2008 election.  

Democrats have awakened to the fact that the state is bankrupt and the Republican majorities in the legislature are larger and much more conservative than when she took office.

Perhaps more important than the trail of failed programs and busted budgets that she's leaving behind, is the fact that she's wiping out the Democratic farm team.  Hundreds of high-level state Democrats owed their high-profile jobs to Napolitano's occupation of the ninth floor.  The heavy handedness that she exerted as governor tainted her appointees and staff as well, and now many of them are unemployable.  Sure, they have plenty of opportunities on K Street in DC, but they will have a tough time finding clients locally. 

Perhaps the biggest loser is Attorney General Terry Goddard.  He was well positioned to run for Governor against a crowded Republican field in 2010.  Now he would be facing Brewer as incumbent Governor.  No chance.  Incumbent Governors are just too strong.  Eddie Basha was crushed by Symington and Paul Johnson was crushed by Jane Hull.  Goddard won't even run in 2010 and if he does, he'll lose by double digits. 

So local Democrats have moved from Denial to Anger.  Eventually, they will move to Barganing then to Depression and ultimately to Acceptance. 

The most poignant quote that a local Democrat used to sum up the situation came from State Senator Ken Cheuvront.  A few minutes into the NPR piece, Cheuvront said:

I would hope that she would put the needs of Arizonans before her own political career. 

Yeah right, good luck with that.

Doomed From The Start

I learned a huge lesson in the 90's.  I saw a lot of people make careless mistakes early in a long process that doomed their entire venture.  For example, I've seen people print nominating petitions and forget to include which district they were running for or get the wrong date for the election.   

I'm not talking about a mistake that makes things more difficult along the way. I'm talking about an initial mistake that dooms an entire project from day one. 

By the end of the 90's, I was calling this type of mistake the Mars Mission Mistake. 

You may recall that it's been just over nine years since the Mars Climate probe disintegrated in the Martian atmosphere.  The Mission cost $125 million and took years of planning and construction.  The flight itself took over 10 months.   Investigators eventually figured out the reason the vehicle burned up in orbit.

NASA lost a $125 million Mars orbiter because one engineering team used metric units while another used English units for a key spacecraft operation, according to a review finding released Thursday.

Isn't that crazy?  One team did the re-entry calculation in feet and the other team used meters.  Since a meter is about 3 times as long as a foot, the re-entry rockets tried to slow the craft down a couple minutes after it lay smoldering on the surface.  The probe was doomed before it was even launched. 

I'll never forget what the JPL Director said at the time.  "Our inability to recognize and correct this simple error has had major implications."

Talk about an understatement.

Throughout the 1990s, this type of mistake was most notably carried out by NASA and the Arizona Cardinals.  However, you may have read about the glaring "Mars Mission Mistake" in Saturday's Republic. 

You will recall that in 2006, the Legislature set up a commission to look into merging school districts.  The committee met for most of 2008 and finally came up with ballot propositions to form six unified districts.  Five of those six were rejected by the voters and now opponents of the one consolidation measure that passed have decided to sue. 

Here's their point.

However, the districts that are supposed to merge contend the ballot measure failed based on the wording in the contentious unification legislation that brought the issue to a vote.

Senate Bill 1068 stated that a majority of "qualified electors" in each affected district would be required to approve the unification plan.

I went back to the original bill from the 2006 legislative session and here's the language. 

A majority of the qualified electors in each affected school district is required to approve the proposed unification plan.

My gosh, that's an unbelievable oversight.  After all, we know what "Qualified Electors" means.  That's why everyone voted against Prop. 105.  In fact, here's the language from Prop 105.

(A spending Measure) shall not become law unless the measure is approved by a majority of the qualified electors then registered to vote in this state.

We know that "qualified electors" are different from "voters."  The opponents of Prop 105 made it clear that if approved, the measure would count people who stayed home as "no" votes.  And that is exactly what should happen here. 

In fact, only about 30% of the registered voters made their way far enough down the ballot to get to the unification proposal.  So even if they had all voted in favor, the initiative wouldn't have met the statutory requirement.

I'm sure that it was a mistake.  Someone inserted the wrong language, but the language that they inserted was clear--"qualified voter" is a very precise term.  It's not the role of the courts to ignore what the legislature wrote just because Marty Shultz says it wasn't what they really meant.   

The entire district unification process...months of hearings, thousands of hours...was doomed from the start. 

 

 

 

 

Women in Leadership

The State Press's Phil Haldiman has a unique angleon the transition from Napolitano to Brewer.

With Gov. Janet Napolitano all but a forgone conclusion to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security, Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer stands to continue a strong female force in the high offices of state government.

Haldiman asked me what changes we would see under Brewer and here was my two cents.

Brewer has more than 25 years of experience in politics. She served as an Arizona state senator from 1987 to 1996, when ASU law student and blogger Greg Patterson was serving in the House.

Although Brewer understands the legislative process and will be able to work with legislatures, Patterson said, on the budget front, things aren’t likely to change if she ends up taking office.

“Napolitano’s team didn’t understand how the Legislature works, which is why bills didn’t get through the Legislature and she ended up vetoing so many bills that reached her desk,” Patterson said. “The state is out of money and out of gimmicks. The only thing left is to cut programs.”

In case you are inclined to quibble with my two points--Team Napolitano didn't understand the legislative process and cuts are inevitable--let me add more detail. 

With the second point, you don't need to believe me, here's a similar analysis  from Assistant Minority Leader Kyrsten Sinema

Now, the recovery could be as much as two years away, according to legislative budget analysts. In the meantime, the state faces the prospect of major and growing budget shortfalls while state reserves and fiscal gimmicks have already been all but tapped and exhausted. Major cuts in programs protected by Napolitano may be unavoidable.

"We're facing the most severe fiscal situation our state has ever seen," said incoming Assistant House Minority Leader Kyrsten Sinema, a Phoenix Democrat.

So, in that regard, it may not matter who's governor at all.

As to my first point that Team Napolitano was ineffective at the Legislature because they never really understood the legislative process, I wrote an entire post on that topic. 

The governor has shown a complete disregard for these complex traditions and has a dismal relationship with the legislature.  After six years in office, her legislative agenda is often dead on arrival and she famously refuses to discuss legislation until it ends up on her desk.  Not surprisingly that legislation often contains features she considers objectionable and she's "forced" to veto scores of bills.  Her string of vetoes is not a sign of strength.  It is an indication that she and her team don't really understand the legislative process. 

This is Cool

Dude, I am so behind on the technology thing.  I still consider my laptop to be high tech, but that's like so 2005.  A friend of mine just sent me this email together with a picture.

Hi Greg!  The best part about having an iPhone is being able to read EspressoPundit.com in Times Square.  See the picture attached!

The Sanctification Begins...

Wow, I thought it would at least take a couple days before the media rewrote the history of Governor Napolitano's six years in office.  But I guess I was wrong.  Here's a glowing article from Monday's Republic that pays tribute to our Education Governor.

Napolitano advanced cause of education

If, as expected, Janet Napolitano, the ''Education Governor,'' joins the Obama administration, some Arizona education leaders worry if they will keep the important gains made under her leadership.

Gains?  I thought that when Napolitano took office, Arizona was nearly last in per pupil spending, had a high drop out rate and spending was constrained by a billion dollar deficit?

Now after six years, I'm happy to report that...well, you get the picture. 

Nothing to Crow About

Actually, Napolitano's real legacy with respect to education is that Arizonans can no longer afford to attend college.  Here's a graph that I printed last year when ASU raised tuition.  You have to click to enlarge it, but the slope says it all.  That steep climb reflects the beginning of the Napolitano administration and the "vision" of Michael Crow.

The graph is going to get a lot taller this year. The graph shows that an in state resident payed about $4,700 per year.  The new number is $5,400.

I have to give the Republic some credit.  The article actually mentions her real record.

Despite her efforts, if Napolitano heads to Washington, D.C., she will leave the state still nearly last in the country for K-12 funding, with a high-school graduation rate of 70 percent and state universities burdened with students unprepared for college work.

And indeed, some editor was at least a bit embarrassed by the blatant cheer leading in the headline.  The on line version of the article has a new headline.

School-funding setbacks feared if gov. leaves

The new headline isn't much better and it provides a good example of the "Republicans at the Helm" fantasy that I detail below. 

The article is simply a platform for the education lobby to talk about how wonderful Napolitano was and how bad Brewer is going to be.

The article is also a great example of the partisanship of the education lobby.  After all, it was Governor Jane Hull who created Prop. 301 to increase the sales tax half a cent for education.  She pumped billions into facilities as well aa Operations and Maintenance.  If money is your criteria, then Hull was clearly the Education Governor.  But the Education Lobby and the media will never recognize Hull's efforts.

That's a lesson that I've often tried to teach my moderate Republican friends.  The Spending Lobby will never be with you.  No matter how much you cater, how much you raise taxes, or how much you spend they will never be with you.  Hull was desperate to be the Education Governor and bowed to the spending lobby's every whim, and when she left office, her approval ratings that were lower than Symington's.  That's saying a lot since Symington underwent a very public bankruptcy and was removed after a felony conviction. 

Now the media and teacher's union ignore the statistics that they hung around every Republican Governor's neck--last in spending, high dropout rate--and declare that after 6 years, Janet Napolitano is the "Education Governor."

Her real legacy is that she made no progress on the Union's key issues but succeeded in making College unaffordable despite a provision in the Arizona Constitution that says a college education should be "As nearly free as possible."

But you won't be reading about that in the Republic.

Republicans at the Helm

Now that the media have finally awakened to the reality that Arizona Republicans are about to be in charge of the Governor's office in addition to the legislature, the shrillness of their coverage has risen to the level of epic fantasy. 

For example, in the pivotal scene of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, the men of Rohan fall back to the fortress of Helms Deep while the evil Saruman sends an army of orcs to siege and overrun the Helm.

In the Arizona media's version of the narrative, Saruman climactic speech will be delivered by Jan Brewer. 

"A new power is rising. Its victory is at hand. This night the land will be stained with the blood of Rohan. March to Helm's Deep. Leave none alive. To war!"

According to the narrative of this epic fantasy, Governor Napolitano would have been the Guardian of Progressive Accomplishment--all day Kindergarten, the nascent Bio Tech Economy, gleaming new University towers--that she has steadfastly promised over the last six years.

The narrative begins in Friday morning's Republic. 

Gov. Janet Napolitano's appointment to the incoming Obama administration would put a Republican at the state's helm, potentially leading to harsher budget cuts and a U-turn on state policy governing everything from gun restrictions to abortion.

The Star even managed to introduce comic relief by adding the hapless Republican Ann Day to the narrative.

"Things would unravel," said Day, who served for 10 years in the state Senate with Brewer. "She'd undo every positive thing that's been done — all-day kindergarten, university funding … state shared revenues."

Oh my.

To make this fantasy believable, the media expects the audience to suspend belief and assume that Governor Napolitano could somehow have conjured the money to fund these programs.

The Citizen provides another example of the theme. 

(Napolitano's) skills in negotiating and consensus-building spurred the state to progress in education, from all-day kindergarten to improved state universities - even with our economy.

An archconservative approach now likely will undo much of the good that had been done.

The reality, of course, is that Napolitano spent the artificially high revenue generated by the housing bubble on ongoing programs and the state has no ability to maintain that level of funding in a downturn.  When the bubble burst,  instead of gradually ramping down spending to sustainable levels, she used gimmicks to fill the gap while claiming that revenues would come roaring back.

Her current budget commits the state to spending $10.7 billion even though her own budget team expects the state will only generate $8.5 billion in revenue.  Meanwhile, all the one-time accounting measures--school rollover, fund sweeps, rainy day fund and school bonding--have already been utilized.  Her last trick is to sell the state's lottery, but that would only raise about $500 million and we would still be $500 million short this year and $1.5 billion short next year.  Even Democratic Legislators will admit that there are no options other than cutting spending.

The media uses stories like this one to build the narrative that Governor Napolitano was making a desperate last stand to preserve her record of accomplishment and in her absence, the hoard of Republicans will bring their Escalades to the Capitol and breech the walls.

Brewer known as tight-fisted, partisan

Republican Jan Brewer, who reveled in her reputation as being tight-fisted with taxpayer money when she was in the Legislature, would drastically change the political dynamics in Arizona if she is elevated to governor through the anticipated departure of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano.

So Brewer is a tight-fisted partisan?  I suppose Napolitano is a bipartisan consensus builder?

In addition to dredging up 15 year quotes to demonize Jan Brewer, the media will engage in outright fabrication like in this frantic editorial from the Star.

The new Legislature will be dominated by Republican conservatives from Maricopa County. Among them:... Sen. Bob Burns of Peoria, who this week ruled out planning for infrastructure projects because of the state budget deficit.

Ruled out planning for infrastructure projects?  I was at the meeting the Star is referring to and Burns said no such thing.  He simply made the point that planning for the year 2030 would have to wait until the state overcame its current crisis.  But you don't have to rely on my word, the Star covered the meeting as well and here's what Burns actually said.

"We have used up our cash reserves. We have very few tools left to solve a worsening problem at the state level," said state Sen. Bob Burns, a Peoria Republican who will become president next year from his current post as Senate Appropriations Committee chairman. "It is a critical function to do long-term planning, but when you are in a situation that we find ourselves in now, we have to solve this short-term problem. We cannot continue to let this deteriorate."

So Burns considers long-term planning to be "critical," and clearly hasn't ruled out anything.  But that doesn't fit into the Star's fantasy narrative.

Of course, the Star sought to demonize Burns from the very beginning.  Here's how they responded to the news that he would be Senate President.

The tone and tenor of the Legislature will change. Bee, a strong voice of reason and moderation, will be replaced as Senate president by ultraconservative Bob Burns of Peoria.

Most members of the media are liberal, but consider themselves moderate, so they look at the legislative spectrum and they assume the people immediately to their right are "conservative," so that large group a bit further to the right must be "ultra" Conservative. 

Actually, Bob Burns is well within the category of "conservative".  In fact, he's toward the middle of the Senate Republican caucus--which is, of course, why they elected him as President.   He's a classic pro-life, limited government, Ronald Reagan Conservative.  But part of the media fantasy is to re-define the Republican caucus and make him part of an evil hoard.  And since the word "Conservative" still resonates well with the electorate, the media have to make conservatives look extreme by using "right-wing," "Ultra," "Neo-con" or my personal favorite "Uber."

So the saga begins.  A classic tale of good versus evil is beginning to unfold...

"In Ancient Times darkness ruled the land and the children of men groaned under rule of Evan Mecham while the Arizona Republic spoke truth from the tower of Pulliam.  A light shone briefly as Rose Mofford bloomed for a short time and then faded into dusk.  Darkness reigned from Symington to Hull; the children suffered and the universities darkened. Then after many ages when the light of man was nearly extinguished and the darkness loomed eternal, there came a light from the far away kingdom of Albuquerque.

Darkness was pushed to the corners of the land where it lurked and waited...it waited until the Light would be drawn to The One.  The One has called the Light and darkness once again has fallen on the land.  So begins the tale of Brewer..."

To be continued in the major newspaper near you...

Or, if you prefer, you can watch the local media's version of Governor Brewer's State of the State Address in which she and ultraconservative President Bob Burns address the Republican caucus. 

Branch Rookies

I've often contended that the accuracy and analysis in the blogosphere is--on the whole--more accurate than the mainstream media.  Some of the commenters have taken significant umbrage at my assertion.   After finals, I'll probably put together a long post to demonstrate my point.  Until then, I'll show you funny little examples.  Like this one by Matthew Benson in today's Republic.

Her departure would send ripples through Arizona politics. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer, next-in-line to the governorship, would serve the remaining two years of Napolitano's term - putting all three branches of state government under GOP control.

I'm assuming that Governor Brewer isn't going to try to impeach a large swath of the Judiciary--you know, the third branch of Government.  So Matt Benson was obviously thinking about the Governor's office, the Senate and the House.  But like Jack Nicholson said in Mars Attacks. 

I want the people to know that they still have 2 out of 3 branches of the government working for them, and that ain't bad.

(As you can tell by the first comment to this post, Matt takes my post in the spirit of fun that it was intended.)

You Little Devil You.

Dude, I finally made the big time; I've been profiled in the State Press. 

An ASU law student getting his degree in December is the local go-to guy for all things political in Arizona.

In late fall 2004, EspressoPundit.com creator Greg Patterson, now 45, was happy if four or five people visited his new site every day. Now it’s blown out into a 2,000-hit-a-day local and national source for political junkies who want to be in the political know.

Who would have known that an espresso machine bought for him as a father’s day gift four years ago would have played so heavily into his political fame.

“I was drinking three cups a day and getting so agitated about politics and the media that I was driving my kids crazy — I eventually realized that the machine automatically made double espressos,” Patterson said. “I finally decided to start writing my thoughts down and decided to call the blog Espresso Pundit.”

Whenever I see coverage of myself, it always triggers a bunch of mixed feelings, most of which involve embarrassment.   

First, I want to express my appreciation to Phil Haldiman for his patience when writing the story.  I spent quite a bit of time explaining that one of my major themes is the death of traditional journalism and wondering why anyone would try to become a journalist in this market.  Naturally, in my ranting, I was oblivious to the fact that he is, of course, a journalism student.  But he was nice about it.

I guess the second thing that bothers me about being profiled is the way that photographers always try to make me look bad by accurately reflecting my appearance.  Dude, when did I become a middle aged bald guy? 

Another embarrassing aspect of the article is the way I sound.  My friend Bill Mundell, once said that it's humbling to read yourself in a transcript.  He's exactly right and when I read a story in which I am quoted verbatim I often find myself wondering what the heck I meant. 

This quote is an especially good example.  "It’s been slow but exponential growth, Patterson said."

"Slow but exponential"?  That simply proves that I'm an idiot. 

Actually, Espresso Pundit has been on a classic exponential growth curve--going from a few dozen hits per month to over 60,000--but that growth has occurred over four years,  thus the slope of the exponential curve  has been shallow.  So while it's technically accurate to call the growth "slow but exponential," the phrase makes no sense to the reader.

Then there are the little personal embarrassing points.  Like the fact that I have to be on campus today, and I'm wearing the same shirt that I was wearing in the picture.  No, not a similar shirt, the same shirt.  It was still fairly clean and I was late this morning so I figured that no one would notice that I simply put on the same clothes that I wore yesterday.  With 50,000 pictures of me in this exact shirt distributed all over campus, I think I'm busted.

Finally, I'm concerned that my dad may read the article and make the connection that I'm really at ASU. My parents moved to Tucson when they were kids, so from Outer Limits Pre-school to UA, I'm a Tucson guy.  My dad bought his UA basketball season tickets when Ben Lindsey was the coach and the team record was  like 3 and 100.  He's been to about 400 games since then and while he's heard that I'm in law school, he thinks it's a cover story. 

I've told him that I actually spend my spare time running a Meth Lab and that the ASU law school story is just a cover.  Now he will realize it's true and I'm sure he will be devastated. 

So aside from my personal pain, it's a great story and I want to thank all the people who contributed to making it possible.   

CNN Says Janet's Leaving.

PHOENIX -- CNN is reporting the Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano has been tapped by President-Elect Barack Obama for the cabinet position of Homeland Security Chief.

Earlier today Napolitano claimed that she was not looking for another job when asked about a possible cabinet position.

She was initially thought to be in the consideration for Attorney General, but that position has been reportedly offered to Eric Holder.

No word on Napolitano's reaction yet.

Here's the original story.

If you want Peace, Work for Justice

The Office of United States Attorney has just become the safest political appointment in the nation.  In the naivete of my youth, I believed that US Attorneys served at the pleasure of the President and that they would be subject to replacement if the President decided to go a different direction. 

So when Janet Reno fired all 93 US attorneys on behalf of Bill Clinton, there was some controversy, but everyone understood that Clinton was the President and he could pick his own team. 

Then President Bush decided to replace seven US Attorneys and all hell broke lose.  We haven't seen such outrage since FDR tried to pack the Supreme Court.

I guess the the US Attorneys are now untouchable guardians of Truth, Justice and the American Way.  So now that Eric Holder is going to be the new AG, I presume that all US Attorneys are safe. 

After all, it would be pretty hypocritical for the media and the Democrats to howl over the removal of a handful US Attorneys and then fire a bunch of them when Obama becomes President.  And if there's one thing that we can count on, it's that the Mainstream Media and the Congressional Democrats are never hypocritical. 

Politically appointed attorneys often have tumultuous careers but now President Obama's Justice Department will offer a safe haven where US Attorneys are retained based on their qualifications and not because they support the President's agenda.  So if you want peace, work for Justice.

Here's the clip of Janet Reno firing all 93 US Attorneys.  It's funny, she reminds me of someone, but I can't quite put my finger on it...