It's going to be a Republican Year

If there's anything I've learned about the mainstream media, it's that they either act like a pack or a herd.  How many times have we seen articles like this one from last week's Star?

With Republican voters favoring conservatives over moderates in this month's primary election, Arizona Democrats believe their chances of retaking the state House in the general election — or at least making significant gains — have new life.

Sure, Democrats are going to take over the State House.  All they have to do is retain the upsets they won in 2006 and then add four new seats.   Give me a break.

Here's a fun quiz.  What was the media reporting before Republicans got crushed in 2006?  How about this.

Salmon and other Republican officials remain hopeful they can gain legislative seats in the state House and Senate, where the GOP is a handful of seats away from a veto-proof supermajority.

In fact, if you put "veto-proof" and "Republican" into the Republic archives you will get 27 articles discussing how the Republicans were going to build a two thirds majority in both houses so they could override Governor Napolitano's vetoes.

Needless to say, it didn't really work out that way. 

The talk of a veto-proof majority in 2006 was evidence of a bombastic GOP leadership and a gullible media reflecting on Republican gains in 2004 and projecting them onto 2006.  Now that same echo chorus is taking Democratic gains from 2006 and projecting them onto 2008. 

However Democrats are about as likely to take over the House in 2008 as Republicans were of getting a supermajority in 2006.

On March 20th I wrote a post called "A Republican Year?" in which I suggested that Arizona Republicans were going to make significant gains in November.

McCain is obviously going to win Arizona, so the national Republican and Democratic parties aren't going to spend a lot of resources on the top of the Arizona ticket.  Combine the lack of outside influence with the fact that McCain energizes the Republican-leaning Independents and moderate Republicans who will turn out in droves, and I think you have the makings for unusually high Republican turnout.

Since then three things have happened that make me even more confident that 2008 will be a Republican year in Arizona.  First, of course is that Sarah Palin--and the media/Democratic Party's over the top reaction to her--have mobilized the Republican base.

Second is that I think it's becoming clear that McCain is appealing to moderate Republicans and Republican leaning Independent voters.  Those voters are now more likely to come to the polls and they are likely to vote Republican down the ballot. 

I've been searching for a way to make the point that McCain appeals to the "Reagan Democrats."  I was actually thinking about this post while on the 202 last week when this truck blew by me.  It's hard to make the image out because I took the shot at full zoom through my windshield while going about 75 MPH, but the sticker in the middle of the rear window says USMC.  The one to the right of that is a new McCain '08 sticker and the one on the left bumper say "Union Carpenter."

If Romney were the nominee, I think this guy would have stayed home.  If Hillary Clinton were the nominee, this guy would probably have voted a Democratic ticket.  Now he has a McCain sticker on his truck and I think he's likely to vote Republican as he makes his way down the ballot.

The final factor that predicts large gains for Arizona Republicans is that Republicans have been making gains nationally.  In fact, for the first time since 2006, Republicans are leading the generic ballot.  Here's a graph from Gallup.

This graph shows that when I wrote my original post, Republicans trailed Democrats by 15 points.  Now the number is three.  And when Gallup adjusted the poll to reflect most likely voters, Republicans have a five point edge.  That led Gallup to conclude:

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

So how do these three factors--Palin energizes the base, McCain energizes the Independents and Republicans gain nationally--affect Arizona in November?  Here's how I think it will play out. 

State Legislature

If the three trends that I've described actually prove true on election day, then Republicans will gain at least two seats in the House and one in the Senate.

Republicans are favored in the Pinal County seat that Pete Rios has vacated in District 23.

Democrats will have trouble repeating their upset victories in the District 26 (Northern Tucson and Oro Valley).  Al Melvin has now managed to defeat both Toni Hellon and Pete Hershberger and should have no problem winning the Senate seat.  The House seat is likely to go Republican as well. 

Republicans will probably pick up a seat in District 24 (Yuma).  And if all three trends maintain their strength, then Republicans should regain a seat in District 10 as well. 

Democrats have essentially already lost the District 11 seat held by Mark DeSimone, and Republicans have essentially already lost the District 25 seat held by Jennifer Burns.  However, Burns was a reliable Democratic vote and DeSimone's replacement John Altman is a conservative Republican, so even though Republicans don't officially gain a seat, they add the equivalent of one seat to the caucus.

Meanwhile, Democrats argue that Conservative victories in the Primary make Republicans vulnerable in Districts 26 and 30.  And that registration inroads--and a ton of cash--make Speaker Weiers vulnerable in 10.  That may have been true in 2006 with Napolitano, Goddard and Pederson on the ballot and Republicans screwing up Congress, but I don't see it this year.

I think the most likely scenario is that Melvin wins the District 26 Senate seat and two of the four House seats go Republican.  If all three trends come together in a perfect storm, then Republicans could conceivably pick up four house seats.

Congress 

Congressional races are harder to predict because they are less random.  Voters are more likely to know the candidates and they may cross over.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if people vote for John McCain and Gabby Giffords. 

Six months ago, I would have said that all three of the Congressional Districts that are currently in play would go Democratic.  The power of incumbency is so overwhelming that Mitchell and Giffords should be safe and the Republican brand in District one should be so damaged that Kirkpatrick would defeat Hay.

However, the McCain, Palin and Generic Ballot trends make it more likely that these Districts revert to normal voting patterns.  Let's face it, District 5 is a Republican seat.  If the trends hold and he doesn't get outspent 4 to 1, Schweikert should beat Mitchell. 

In District one, there's no incumbent, the registration is about equal and a lot of the Democrats are of the conservative "blue dog" variety.  If trends hold, Sidney Hay should win that seat.

District 8 is tougher.  I think Gabby will have a lot of cross over voters and the numbers are pretty equal.  In my perfect storm scenario, Tim Bee could win, but I think it will be a tough race. 

Maricopa County Attorney

Give me a break.  Thomas by double digits.

For the Archive

It's tough to go on record with a post like this.  If I'm wrong, the rest of my career will be "remember how bad Patterson botched it in 2008."  And if I'm right, the media will be treating the Republican victories like conventional wisdom. 

But anyone can go along with the herd.  This post describes current trends that I  think have been ignored by the Mainstream Media together with the implications of those trends.

My analysis may be wrong, but it's certainly not conventional

I welcome your (polite) comments. 

Comments

[Alex]

Excellent post. All 3 Republican candidates from LD 26 were on the radio together this afternoon, Emil Franzi on 690 AM. They seemed to get along fine. You did not see that in 2006. Losing seats can sober up a political party real quick.

A few diehards may have their own favorite in the GOP house race but it’s not like the Democrats have warm feelings toward each other over the way Nancy Young Wright was appointed by the BOS. Plus the Republicans now get to run against the Democrat governor’s photo radar budget that raided the K-12 school maintenance fund.

[Tom in Mesa]

It looks like you were making these bold predictions while our government was working on the largest state-sponsored bailout in our nation's history. I think that's the topic of note and will likely shake up the election significantly. I don't know what to make of the GOP any more--with bailouts like these, it's not much of a market driven party. Not sure it has been for a while, though I've still supported them. Don't know who to vote for any more. Interesting times we have.

[ron]

I think you are overly optimistic, Greg.

First, Jon Kyl has already signaled that he doesn't believe that Congress will move back to a majority of the GOP. I would trust his sense of how things are playing out.

Second, While you have your bumper sticker, I am seeing my own. Like the one I saw this morning with a ''I love Jesus" sticker with a Saban sticker. Only Evangelicals and some bold conservative Catholics put prominent 'I love Jesus' bumper stickers on their three-quarter ton trucks. Then the Saban sticker - obviously a move to support a Democrat. Sounds like a person who is not likely to vote a 'straight' ticket. If the driver has doubts about some of the GOP ticket he or she may have more thoughts. Your McCain-Giffords scenario acknowledges this reality.

Third, tonight my wife and I had dinner with friends. They are retired career military. They have lived in Alaska in the past as part of their service time. The wife has a history of sending me emails about why we should be worried about Obama. Tonight without provocation, the wife tells us she starts talking about her discomfort of Palin being the President should death take McCain. Palin has moved her from the McCain camp to Obama. She is willing to take her chances on Obama.

I noticed you didn't talk about CD3. First, Lord has collected money and support beyond that of any prior candidate Shadegg has faced. Second, Lord's ads are getting traction. Third, Shadegg is wearing thin with conservative GOPers who are upset with his support of people like Bouie in LD6 and 'open borders'. Fourth, he has very poor customer service - I know I live in his district. I think that Shadegg is facing the biggest challenge of his political career. I think this is the broading upset of CD elections this season - not unlike Mitchell over Hayworth two years ago.

I think that your optimism about McCain's coattails to bring the vote in for GOP down the ticket is rather stated.

[Bill]

Arizona's own John McCain is at the top of the ticket. I don't think the folks at the Arizona Democratic Party understand the impact home state pride will have on likely GOP voters. They don't realize it, but there are more risks than opportunities for them in Arizona this year.

The Democrats are going to have to make some tough choices about how to allocate resources. If they play too much offense trying to take out GOP incuments, they're likly to lose seats they could have successfully defended.

Unless Dems continue to improve their voter registration numbers, it seems likly 2006 will be viewed as a high water mark for Democrats, much the way 1994 was a high water mark for the GOP.

[Comrade Terry]

So how do you like the new central economic planning under the Republican economic czars, comrade?

[a. depaul]

I wish I shared your confidence that Schweikert will win - not because I have a different analysis, only because I hate Harry Mitchell with the fire of 1000 suns.

Somewhat surprised to see your assessment of Thomas also. I pretty much live in a lawyer-filled bubble, but most of the ones I know (including many dyed in the wool Repubs) HATE Thomas. He's making lawyers look bad. He's also wasting hundreds of thousands of county dollars by making garden variety DUI plea bargains into death penalty cases. I personally like that he's standing up for immigration issues, but on everything else he seems like a standing joke. Am I just stuck in an echo chamber? Are other people seriously thinking anything different about him? Or do you think people are just going to want to avoid the Napolitano protege.

[Thane Eichenauer]

I am a skeptic that such a thing as a generic ballot exists. Note of the ballots I have voted have ever omitted the name of a candidate. I would say the only observation one could make of the Gallup poll is that a steady 7% (plus/minus 2%)of the population apparently understands this point.

[Joe]

Anyone remember what happened the last time an Arizona native was the Republican nominee? Goldwater carried AZ by less than 1%, Sam Goddard was elected Governor, and the Democrats gained seats in the legislature. I know there are differences, but interesting nonetheless.

[Sonoran Sam]

I could say many things about the inaccuracies, misstatements and miscalculations in this post.

But I'll wait. Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. Guess we'll see.

In the meantime, enjoy your happy little world.

[ron]

What do the following have in common?

A divorce

Changing denomonational affiliation

Voting across party lines on a ballot

They are all easier to do the second time.

Many people have been voting across party lines in the past 4 years.

[Thomas]

ron,

re: Congress Greg made specific claims about certain Congression races but he really didn't address a Congressional change over so I don't see how Kyl's comments are conflicted with Gregs. A seat or two will not change the shape of Congress.

re: Shadegg interesting but let's say your right about Rep Conservatives and Shadegg, you think they might vote for someone they would like alot less? They may not be thrilled about Shadegg but they will be voting for him. I doubt his apparent weakness is as bad as you suggest, but we will see in a bit.

[Kim]

Lots to consider, for sure. The economic current may sweep some incumbents out and wash new leadership to the surface. Whoever is tied to the uncertainty or duplicity in it, will have a bull’s eye on their back. If it is a draw on complicity, the devil we know in times of uncertainty could override any feelings of distrust. It could be a “Throw the bums out” year for ALL.

This year it will be personal; in CD 1 the Dems win on that point. A home-grown, plain-talking, smart and proven candidate versus a state of Maricopa transplant, sort of, with no elected service to evaluate. Add in the DCCC money, tip the scale Dem.
CD8 is tough. The $ of the incumbent is an obstacle. She also has the home-grown pride factor but so does Bee. He may benefit from the coattails but will need a huge GOTV.

CD5...ahhhhh; voter numbers R; name recognition D. Money D; effort R. Coattails R…..it could be an upset. Did Harry belly up to the trough of the transgressor…big $ lobbyists? Or did he prove his value?

Shaddeg is fine. He might not show up in the district all that well, but he sure does on The Hill. That is what people notice. That is what they really want.

Statewide: Dems have 3 times the money of the R’s in state party, are extremely organized and motivated. R’s have spent some capital on killing off primary opponents. BUT... R’s will vote, they will work, and they have been activated. Grassroots wins but there might be a casualty or two.

As for the Saban and I love Jesus sticker... that is more about a single issue. I hear many conservatives say they want a sheriff not a press junkie. They oppose illegal immigration but also do not want to see millions and millions of dollars in law suits and other crimes go untouched because it produces no headline or sound bites. However, Saban will need tons of money to overcome the Joe love fest.

Thomas is the same thing; the people who work closely in law enforcement or the courts, solid conservatives, think the guy is bad news. However, the other choice is not any better. Thomas wins.

[Name:]

I didn't think there were any conservatives in the courts, so if you ask them about Thomas you already know what you're getting. And lawyers, as a class of voters, well they are numerically insignificant (Sorry Greg). Thomas will win because voters will overwhelmingly approve of his actions on crime and immigration. For whatever reason, (long ballot, voter fatigue, advertising, media) it just doesn't get much deeper than that. The D's know it, they're just trying to make a halfway decent challenge. Same with Lord. They can't win, but they can show they can fight and keep the R's from claiming mandates like Arpaio's been doing for so long.

[Dave K.]

Spot on, Mr. P. I'm guessing that Nov. will prove that your accuracy on this one is near perfect. On all counts, including the inevitable excuse fest from the losers ...

[AzConservative]

I'm wondering what you are basing your Andy Thomas numbers. Is it polling? Or are you basing it on voter registration/primary turnout? I thought I remembered reading something along the lines of almost a third of registered voters being Independent. I think if you take into account that ind/democrat registration is up, and that about 150,000 additional Democrats voted in the presidential primary in 2008 than in 2004. It just seems surprising to me. I'm not sure that Nelson can win it, but it does seem like it might be close. From my perspective, most people I know (many long time conservative donors/activists) are appalled by the Thomas regime. The man has alienated people! It isn't just over the immigration issue. That said, I don't run in the exurb- pseudo conservative populist pitchfork redneck circles. I tend to to know longtime Phoenecians either born or raised in Arizona. So, I do have my doubts on a Nelson victory but my hope is in kicking that carpetbagger out of state!

[AzConservative]

I'm wondering the basis for your Andy Thomas numbers. Cheers!

[Name:]

I think when Greg says double digits, he means 10 or 11 points. No one says he'll win by 40 or 50 points. I would agree Thomas has alienated some people over the immigration issue, but seeing as his campaign four years ago already did that and he won by a lot, those are not "newly alienated" people, and Thomas' previous victory proves that. Thomas the county attorney did exactly what Thomas the candidate said he would do. If people voted for him not knowing he was going to be tough on illegal immigration (it was all over his signs, and everywhere else) well that's just absurd.

[Patrick]

Mitchell will beat Schweikert by near double-digits. Throw out the registration numbers when Harry's name is on the ticket - just ask Laura Knaperek about that. Giffords wins going away. Thomas wins but it will be a lot closer than you think. And I think the D's pick up 1-2 in the House and 1 in the Senate. McCain's margin in Arizona will be in the 5-7 point range but that will be only a consolation prize for McCain as Obama wins big nationally, by 4-6 points in popular and with over 315 in EC. Senate goes D 57-43, D's also gain in House.

Greg's post is mostly wishful thinking and so last week thinking. The market collapse changed everything.

[combsl]

Wait, isn't this the blog that predicted that McCain was going to drop out of the race about a year ago? And that Janet would regret backing Obama in the primary? My point isn't to bring up Greg's other failed predictions (ok, maybe a little) but rather to say that being called on the carpet for being wrong later is not a reason to refrain from making predictions now......very interesting post, Greg may be right this time....

[Sam]

Patrick is really Al Franken. Unfunny, and not grounded in reality.

[Kim]

Not so fast Patrick. The news cycle on the economy keeps on turning. Until the first debate the POTUS race is as fickle as a 7th grade girl. A blip on the radar from outside Wall Street and they will run to John for safety and surety of a time tested servant versus a self-serving neophyte.

This race started over 18 months ago! McCain made it out of a tough primary and bares the weight of an incumbent from a party badly damaged and whose brand does not fair well nationally. With the Obamamania supported by the MSM and CNN, the American public has had him thrown at us and told to like it, yet he still can't break more than a lead within the margin of error. Even then, he can't maintain it. All the mud they have thrown at McCain, all the free press and overblown bias and he can't make it work. Empty suit. Feels good some of the time...sorta...and wouldn't it be exciting, and of course WWOD? But, this isn't the Book of the Month; it is the President of the United States.

The drunkenness of rhetoric will wear off and when it comes right down to it; McCain wins.

[Nick]

Raines and Johson for Obama with
bankrupt Fanny MONEY!

[Patrick]

I am an Independent not an Al Franken Democrat. And I'm basing this on what I've read from a number of non-partisan sources. I think this is going to be a very difficult election for John McCain to win. Even if the 4-6 point landslide prediction doesn't come true, I think Obama wins in 7 or 8 out of 10 scenarios. To me the most likely scenario is that Obama wins all of the Kerry states plus Colorado and Nevada. Colorado is trending more and more Obama and may be up to 8 points now. That would win him the election alone. Add to that the states that McCain should have in the safe column by now are far from it -- North Carolina, Virginia and Florida -- causing him to spend money where he shouldn't. This isn't a partisan analysis - it's what most objective people are saying.

[Patrick]

And to your point Kim about McCain having to weather a negative media. I guess I would have to disagree in part and agree in part. I think McCain had the easier road with the media up until a couple of months ago. The national media loved him and remembered that he was this straight-talking, no spin, accessible guy. That is completely gone now. Two weeks ago, you had nearly every major news outlet decrying McCain's misleading statements, actually calling them lies. I think whatever currency with the press McCain had is gone now and most see him as a sellout that will say anything to win. Again, that's not me talking but the talking heads. If you think the media has been bad up to this point, you ain't seen nothing yet.

[Mesa Republican George]

Thomas won four years ago because his opponent on the D's ticket was a joke. Tim Nelson, whatever his political leanings, is a great lawyer. The CA should be a good lawyer and great manager, not a news hound or a policy maker. Like E. DePaul, I live in a lawyer-insulated bubble, but this is one R will not be voting for Thomas in November.

[Timothy S. Carlson]

Good post. I miss the Arizona politics - I'm in Tampa Bay now :(

Only one critique: You should blur the license plate number on that truck. Just sayin'...

[Bryan Schmidt]

McCain will have coattails in Az. Bush won the state by nearly 10 points in 2004, you don't think a home-state candidate running for President will exceed that?

McCain will take the state by at least 15 points. There will be a low Democrat turnout because the state is in the bag for him, and a high turnout for Republicans (thanks Palin!).

Down-ticket, this will effect other candidates. If a district is already a Republican district, it's going to be tough for a Democrat to withstand that tsunami. I predict Mitchell loses his seat, which is already a Republican district by about 10 points.

2008 will be for the Republicans what 2006 was for the Democrats, at least in the state of AZ. (I'm also optimistic on a national level)

[Name:]

I think it would be hard not to be called a news hound when you're prosecuting 40,000 felonies a year, including serial killers and serial rapists when the public and the media are all over it. Anyone seriously think Napolitano's sidekick would be any different? Thomas also appeals to the Independents who have less of a political attitude and are probably more worried about crime, and Thomas has been delivering on that front quite nicely.

Greg mentioned the electoral winners, but I really think the losers are not going to be the D's but the Independents. They have no party, no candidates, and as voters they're just plain left out of the process as they don't vote in the primaries and have no role in the process until the general election. They're ordinary people, and they're stuck making choices they have nothing to do with.

If they wanted to win, the D's could have found someone to appeal to these independents in the CA race, but all they got was a partisan from the Gov's office.

[Mesa Republican George]

Thomas is a news hound, not because he prosecutes killers and rapists but because he makes belittling comments about the judiciary that he practices in front of, indicts newspaper reporters and editors without following the proper procedure because they are his political enemies, misconstrues a state law in a way that no other CA in the state has so that he can be seen as tough on immigration. The prosecution of killers and racists is his job, the other stuff is a side show.

[Alex P. Keaton]

My Saban sticker is right next to my CCV sticker.

I vote Republican every election, every office, and I don't think the MCSO jails should be a Ritz Carlton, but they shouldn't be run like a North Korean Gulag either - how can good people and my fellow Republicans sit by and accept this? If Joe wasn't a Republican - would any of us have any reason to vote for him?

-APK

[todd]

Here is a little nugget from CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll:

"Forty-seven percent of registered voters say Republicans are more responsible for the state of the economy, compared to 24 percent of registered voters who say Democrats are more responsible."

This might throw Greg's optimistic predictions off a little.