The good folks over at the Maricopa County Recorders Office have finished the first pass of the TIME Initiative sample and the failure rate is 49.1%. The number will improve a bit on the second pass, but clearly not enough to save the initiative.
So TIME needed just over 153,000 valid signatures, and they turned in just over 258,000. The Secretary of State eliminated nearly 20,000 signatures in the initial vetting. Of the remaining 238,000, half of them are bad. So the final estimate is that they have about 119,000. The number is probably a little higher because the invalidity rate is lower outside of Maricopa county, so a good guess is that the actual number is about 123,000.
If the sample had indicated that they had collected 145,000 (95% of the requirement) the Governor's legal team could probably have saved them. But nobody can save an initiative that's this far off.
(The 49% failure rate is astonishing and the consultants who run initiatives don't factor a number like that into their plans. Some consultants (Stan Barnes for example) went for a belt and suspenders approach and built in a huge cushion. In fact, most of the initiatives can tolerate an above average failure rate. However, the Arizona Civil Rights initiative had a fairly low safety margin and certainly wouldn't be able to handle a failure rate in the 40% range. Liberals may end up with a silver lining.)