Well, I was wrong about an inevitable government shutdown. I've gone back over the time line that I used when I calculated that there was no way to finish the budget in time. It seems that I had time allocated for the "Republicans in the Legislature" to "negotiate with the Governor." That part didn't happen and the "Republican Leadership" simply did what the Governor wanted. Well, I guess that's a good way to save a week.
Let's face it, the Governor and the Democrats enjoy a working majority on fiscal issues. It looks to me like they kicked the can down the road using accounting gimmicks and deficit financing on the theory that the current revenue drop is temporary and they can hydroplane over it.
My theory is that revenue growth will come back slowly and the Governor's solution--raided funds, accounting tricks and new debt--will devastate the state's finances in the long run.
If the legislature finds itself in the same fiscal mess next year...or later this year...I guess we will know which theory is right.