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Sonoran Alliance has printed their traffic report. They've had their best month ever and are approaching 20,000 visits.
If they continue at this rate, they will pass Espresso Pundit, but they aren't there yet.
Of course, if you count the people who read Espresso Pundit twice a day, the number goes way up.
"After much thought, and encouragement from fellow residents and community leaders I am excited to announce the formation of an official exploratory committee for my potential candidacy for Arizona's Fifth Congressional District.
It has become increasingly clear that the “change” of 2006 quickly became “business as usual” in 2007. And 2008? Well, it's an election year – nothing will get done. What will the Washington DC talking points be this year?
We were told last year and will be told again, that immigration reform, balancing the budget and ending our dependence on foreign oil were and are the top priorities of our current Congressman. Predictably, nothing has happened on those fronts, except an increase in deficit spending.
We don't need any more rehashed talking points from Washington DC – we need action points. The challenges facing the Fifth District require action, and leadership.
As a second-generation Arizonan, I can remember when we were a “small” state. It took great leaders to fight for Arizona's interests on the national stage. We are fortunate that our small state was blessed with true, larger-than-life leaders like Barry Goldwater, Carl Hayden and John J. Rhodes. My introduction to Washington politics came as an intern for Republican Minority Leader Rhodes. It was a different time in Washington and in our country, but leadership is timeless.
As a tax-cutting member of the Scottsdale City Council; a consolidation advocate on a local school board; and a steward of our most precious Arizona resource as the President of the Central Arizona Water Conservation District Board, my record of leadership on vital Arizona issues is clear.
Over the next month I will explore within the framework allowed to determine if my brand of leadership and action are right for the Fifth District. I invite voters to share with me their ideas about how to make sure our interests are best represented in Washington DC."
Dude, I don't want to sound like I'm piling on, but Gannett stock is down another 4% TODAY ALONE. The bottom is truly falling out of the industry.
Mesa— David Keene, Chairman of the American Conservative Union (ACU), announced his endorsement today for State Rep. Mark Anderson who is running for the GOP nomination to challenge Harry Mitchell, the Democrat incumbent in Arizona’s 5th District.
“I am proud to give Mark my full support,” Keene said. “He is a man who has a track record of putting principle above politics and being a proven leader who will fight to restore fiscal sanity to our government and those values that strengthen our families, economy and nation,” Keene stated.
Founded in 1964, the American Conservative Union is the preeminent, leading national organization of conservatives in America. The ACU also hosts the annual Conservative Political Action Conference that was recently attended by 6,000 conservative activists that also featured President George Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Sen. John McCain, Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, and many other prominent members of Congress as conference speakers.
Republican Professionals (RP) announced today that they will be hosting Mark Finelli, a 9/11 World Trade Center survivor who gave up a 6-figure job with Morgan Stanley to enlist in the Marines and fight in Iraq and AZ State Representative Jonathan Paton, a ”rising star” in the Republican Party and Iraq war veteran. Both speakers will appear at the organization’s upcoming March 6, 2008 free networking event at 6 Lounge in Scottsdale.
“We are pleased to have Mark Finelli speak at our event. He is a true American hero and the only 9/11 World Trade Center survivor to enlist in the marines and fight in Iraq. His story is an inspiring tale of honor, courage and steely leadership. It will be insightful to learn about his ‘in the trenches’ account of his experiences in Iraq and his assessment of the current situation,” said RP President Charles A. Jensen.
Mark Finelli has been a featured guest on Fox, CNN and “Hardball with Chris Mathews” on MSNBC. He’s also appeared on popular radio programs, such as “The Sean Hannity Show” and been written about in major publications like Newsweek and National Review. Finelli will also be appearing in a documentary by two-time Oscar winner and trooper supporter John Voight.
Jensen also expressed his enthusiasm for hosting Jonathan Paton, a popular member of the Arizona House of Representatives and Iraq war veteran: “Representative Paton is a gifted public speaker and admired public servant. We look forward to hearing about his background and recent experience in Iraq.” (Paton volunteered for active duty in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom from September of ‘06 until February ‘07.)
Doors open at 6:00 P.M. at 6 Lounge, a chic and atmospheric Scottsdale nightclub. Given the popularity of past events and limited space available, Republican Professionals highly encourages all interested in attending the March 6th event to RSVP at www.republicanprofessionals.org
Republican Professionals hosts its free networking events the first Thursday of each month at 6:00 P.M. at the Six Lounge in Scottsdale. Between 150 and 270 professionals consistently attend RP events. For more information about Republican Professionals, please contact Charles Jensen at 602-403-5535 or charles@republicanprofessionals.org
Senate Appropriations Chairman Bob Burns is playing the role of Cassandra in this year's budget negotiations. Read his column, but focus on these two statistics.
The state's historical revenue growth is about 7 percent or approximately $700 million per year;
The debt service in (the Governor's) plan will add as much as $215 million annually to state spending, which will be added to the already $500 million to $600 million annual increase that takes place without any legislative action.
Burns has been making this speech for months. Unless the legislature is willing to make some actual cuts the budget is heading for a train wreck. The legislature can balance this year's budget by using the rainy day fund, accounting gimmicks and new debt. But every $100 million that the state borrows costs nearly $10 million a year in interest. Next year the formula-driven increases and the debt service will use the entire normal revenue increase--without any increases to any other program in state government.
In 1992, the Legislature--at Governor Symington's request--changed the process of filling a Senatorial vacancy from special election to appointment.
However, the Republic's Linda Valdez interviewed Terry Goddard about his future plans and the article included the quote below. She and Goddard are claiming that McCain could time his resignation in a way that forces a special election. Could that possibly be right? Someone help me out here.
If McCain wins the White House without first resigning his Senate seat, it will be filled by a Republican appointed by Napolitano. But if McCain decides to resign his Senate seat in the next few months -- something Goddard says he might do if he wants to exert influence over who his successor will be -- then a special election could bypass a Napolitano appointment.
Gannett hit another 10-year low this morning. Here's a chart for the last four years. If it was a ski run, it would be double diamond. (Golly, I'm feeling positively gleeful.)
I have to say that I laughed a lot when I read this post on Rum Romanism and Rebellion.
Here's the Renzi story from last Friday's NPR.
It's been a busy day in Pundit Land.
I'll be discussing the Renzi indictment with Debbie Elliot on National Public Radio's All Things Considered this afternoon at 5:30 Eastern.
I'll be on Sunday Square Off this Sunday at 8:00, right after Meet the Press. Topics include the State Budget Meltdown, Toll Roads, Guns in Schools and the New York Times Hit Piece on McCain.
Sunday Square Off ends with each guest giving a 30 second "Final Thought."
Here's what I'm going to say.
"When I was in kindergarten, my mom told me to always tuck in my shirt and comb my hair. I give the same advice to my kids, but they tell me that NOBODY under 30 tucks in their shirt or combs their hair. Unfortunately, other advice that my mother gave me has gone by the wayside as well. Political campaigns have become increasingly rancorous. Political debates have become increasingly bitter and political coverage has become increasingly cruel and salacious. The New York Times Story on Senator McCain is based on ten year old rumors and unsubstantiated gossip and is, unfortunately, just another example of the type of coverage that candidates must endure.
I'm hoping that the other advice that my mother gave me will come back in style. "If you can't say something nice, don't say anything at all.""
Here's his statement.
Last Thursday, 146 of my colleagues in the U.S. House signed a letter asking me to reconsider, an unprecedented event. Yesterday I received a letter signed by the leaders of 33 different Conservative organizations from across America also urging me to reverse my announced intentions.
The letter signed by my colleagues in the U.S. House emphasized my hard work and expertise in health care reform. I have fought for patient-centered health care reform since my arrival in Congress. I fear we may be on the brink of dramatically damaging the delivery of health care in America -- making it worse, not better. We all recognize the current system doesn't work well for millions of Americans. Health care decisions are being made by third parties, such as insurance adjustors, employer personnel departments, and health care plans, not patients and their families. Many of the changes being promoted by some would make a bad situation even worse. They would move further away from patient choice, personal responsibility, and individual control and toward government run, bureaucrat-controlled health care.
The letter from Conservative leaders also noted the grave challenges confronting our nation today. The attacks of 9/11 demonstrated to the world the deadly threat radical Islam poses to civilization. It is my firm belief that we must confront this danger, without hesitation, if we are to keep it from destroying our society and the freedoms we hold dear. This is another threat I highlighted ten days ago.
The personal factors which led to my initial decision are very real and very important. My family has encouraged and supported my public service and they have sacrificed to allow me to serve the state and nation we all love. In discussing the reaction of my constituents to my decision, we have determined as a family that we are willing to continue to make these sacrifices because the cause is so worthwhile.
Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana, when asked why he circulated the letter amongst my colleagues urging me to reconsider, quoted President Abraham Lincoln who when asked why he kept General Ulysses S. Grant responded: "I cannot spare the man, he fights." Frankly, my family has encouraged me, over the last week to reconsider my decision and is willing to continue to sacrifice so I may continue to fight.
Serving the people of Arizona in the Congress is a tremendous honor and privilege. With the support of my wife, Shirley, my children, Courtney and Stephen, and with the support of the voters of the 3rd Congressional District in November, I will continue to fight for them and to uphold Conservative principles in United States House of Representatives. Therefore, I will campaign for re-election and will continue to fight in Congress for economic prosperity, human rights, personal freedom, and individual responsibility.
Nothing Down! No Payments until 2010. (Plus license and dock fees, O.A.C., some restrictions apply. See dealer for details). Su Trabajo es su credito.
We've all heard pitches like that. It's amazing how much you can buy if you don't have to put any money down and don't have to make payments for a few years. Since most of us assume we will be making more money in the future, it seems OK to buy things now and defer the payments until later.
Most of us rationalize that we are making "investments." It's not like we are going to Disneyland on credit cards, we are buying a house or a much needed car for goodness sake. Ultimately, it doesn't matter how worthy the investment is, if you can't make the payments, you are going to be bankrupt. Perhaps that's why Arizona has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation.
The same principles apply to the State budget. You can only go so long spending money that you don't have.
There have been plenty of articles about Arizona's bleeding budget, but I'm going to be the first to use the "B" word. Arizona is heading for bankruptcy. We are not going to grow our way out of this problem.
Eventually, the bleeding will stop and state revenue will return to its traditional growth rates. But let me be clear. Arizona's revenue traditionally increases about $700 million each year. However, left unchanged, the automatic increases that voters have built into education and health care will increase the budget by $500 to $600 million annually.
Furthermore, the Governor's delayed payment, no-money-down $2.3 billion financing plan will cost over $200 million annually when the interest payments start coming due. Sure, there are gimmicks--delaying school payments, forcing business to pre-pay sales taxes--that can balance the budget on paper. But those tricks are one-time accounting gimmicks. The legislature will use them up just to try to make payroll for the current fiscal year.
In the not-too-distant future, the gimmicks will be used up, the rainy day fund will be gone and mandatory spending increases plus debt service payments will be higher than incremental revenue. And that's without increasing spending in any other area of state government.
The Governor, unwilling to suggest actual cuts, will compel one more round of borrowing. But every $100 million of additional debt costs $10 million a year in interest payments and the financial markets are quickly going to realize that the scheme can't continue forever. Wall Street will either charge exorbitant interest or the money will simply dry up.
The Payday lenders will be gone by then, so the Legislature will try to raise revenue, but they can't raise revenue without a two thirds vote and it takes time to put a tax increase on the ballot. So they will be stuck.
Faced with the choice of missing payroll, or "restructuring" the state's massive debt, they will make the choice that used to be reserved for Latin American countries and New York City. That's the Big BK baby.
I'm not the first one to figure this out. I'm just the first one to report it. Appropriations Chairmen Bob Burns and Russell Pearce have been telling every Legislator, reporter, district meeting and Rotary Club that a train wreck is imminent.
One group that has come up with a credible budget recommendation is the Arizona Tax Research Association. But ATRA's Recommendations are falling on deaf ears. That's because, with the exception of Burns, none of the current crop of Legislators or the Governor's staff have ever had to make really tough budget choices.
But the easy choices have already been made; the gimmicks will soon be gone; the rainy day fund will soon be spent. It's time for real leadership. Instead, the Governor is saying "Nothing Down! No Payments until 2010."
Of course, she'll be gone in 2010 and we will be the ones paying off the credit cards.
The Arizona Capitol Times interviewed me last week for their "Up Close" series. I knew that Reporter Matthew Bunk would eventually get around to the question that everyone asks me, but that I've never really answered. The question usually goes something like this: "You cover the decline of the newspaper industry, and you seem really happy about it, almost gleeful. Why the glee?"
I've explained in previous posts why I cover the economic aspects of the newspaper industry. But I've never explained why it gives me such a deep sense of satisfaction to observe the decline. The answer is too long and passionate to put into an ordinary post, so I've written about all the pieces, but never put them together. So here goes.
Let me say at the outset that reporters are wonderful people. I mean that. I really enjoy getting to know them and pretty much without exception, they have been interesting and charming. But reporters are like the guy who opens the door for you at the mall and then flips you off in the parking lot. There's something about being in a car that changes people into Mad Max and there's something about getting behind the keyboard at a major newspaper that changes people into biased hypocritical bullies.
So now the business model has failed. Ad revenue has collapsed, layoffs are imminent and the barbarian bloggers have penetrated the gates. I'm almost giddy. Let me explain the glee.
Bullying
If I could sum up my animosity towards newspapers in once sentence, it would be these five words: "Merry Christmas to Trish Groe."
That's the first sentence of this year's Republic "Don't drive drunk over the Holidays" editorial.
Here's the full reference to Groe.
Merry Christmas to Trish Groe.
The state representative from Lake Havasu City pleaded guilty this week to misdemeanor drunken driving and was sentenced to 10 days in a Maricopa County jail.
She'll pay attorney bills, fines, various fees and have to breathe into a device (which she'll pay for) before her car will start. Her car-insurance premium will shoot up. This adds up to thousands of dollars.
Her reputation is seriously damaged. Her political future may be wiped out. The only silver lining is that she managed not to injure or kill anyone.
Sadly, Groe will get a lot of company over the next two weeks. Arrests for DUI go up this time of year, because more people are drinking away from home and police devote more resources to getting drunken drivers off the road, said Sgt. Mark Clark, spokesman for the Scottsdale Police Department.
The December 22nd editorial had nothing to do with Groe. The anonymous author just used the occasion to dredge up the incident. The worst part is the mock "Merry Christmas" wish. The Republic isn't reflecting on Groe's problems and sincerely wishing her Merry Christmas. The Republic has dredged up the long stale incident by attaching it to an unrelated editorial. Don't be fooled. The mocking "Merry Christmas to Trish Groe" is the closest a newspaper can get to "Hey Trish F**k You."
Here's another great example of a reporter acting as a bully. Mary Jo Pitzl creates a story in order to dredge up and ridicule Senator Harper for his bankruptcy. Click the link and notice the glee with which she pursues Harper.
One characteristic of a bully is that they hit you even when you aren't doing anything to deserve it. Here's an example where Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox received an award for running a great Mexican food Restaurant and the Republic used the occasion to pummel her.
Occasionally bias and bullying tactics lead to obsession. Here's the Star's Sam Negri fabricating a quote about Rep. Paton. The Star was forced to issue a correction, and Negri then insisted that his fabricated quote was fake but accurate. Negri devoted two editorials and a Sunday column to a quote that he eventually admitted that Paton never said. (Paton found it difficult to defend himself since he was on active duty in Iraq at the time.)
Many of the attacks are outrageous even by journalistic "standards." Here's an example that I wrote about in September of 2006. This sentence has no business in any newspaper. "Republican gubernatorial candidate and abstinence advocate Len Munsil admitted on Friday that he had sex before marriage."
That's right, 22 years and eight kids after his marriage, the Republic decided to print that Munsil wasn't a virgin when he got married. Are we discussing the sexuality of the candidates now? How about publishers? Or maybe the Governor? Are their sex lives on the table--so to speak?
Here, Dennis Welch manufactures a "conflict" in Rep. Steve Yarbrough's voting record and then admits that such "conflicts" are legal and common. It becomes clear in the article that Welch's real complaint is Yarbrough's support for "so called" school choice.
Perhaps the most egregious example of journalistic bullying is the Republic's treatment of Constantin Querard. The coverage is the equivalent of a journalistic Hat Trick. It combines bullying, obsession and the Mainstream Media's notorious refusal to admit when they have been proven wrong. The Republic's Robbie Sherwood wrote TEN stories about Republican activist Constantin Querard being under investigation by the Attorney General. Sherwood never pointed to a source who would confirm that there was an investigation and it now turns out that there may never have been an investigation.
We do know that there was a CCEC investigation, but that was resolved in Querard's favor. There was a complaint by the Maricopa County Republican Party, but the party dropped the complaint and issued an apology. All of the negative stories were well covered. None of the successful resolutions were ever printed.
The Querard stories also had a weird retro-racial tone that was troubling. Just like when Life magazine said of Joe DiMaggio in 1939 "Instead of olive oil or bear grease he keeps his hair slicked back with water. He never reeks of garlic and prefers chicken chow mein to spaghetti." Former columnist Richard Rueles described Querard as having a "slicked back Gordon Gecko haircut," and "shinny gold watch."
I took a huge risk in 2005 by attacking the Republic's credibility on the Querard stories. Sure, there were plenty of people who were critical of the Republic, but no one had ever systematically laid out the case that the facts underlying a series of Republic stories were wrong. It was the first time I took on the paper.
The Yellow Sheet Report provided daily coverage of my posts and interviewed Sherwood to get his response. Here was their conclusion.
"If no indictments are handed up against Querard, Patterson can claim street cred and take on the mantle of a proven pundit. Otherwise, Patterson, like Geraldo Rivera will have gathered the people for a look at The Vault and uncovered only a few old bricks and a lot of stale air."
Querard didn't get indicted and he's still an active consultant. In fact he's directing the Legislative races for the Republican Party, but his reputation is irreparably damaged. The Republic never acknowledged the successful resolution of his case.
I can't emphasize enough how much these stories devastate the lives of the people who are targeted. This isn't a game folks. This type of abuse hurts people. Sure, they step into the arena voluntarily and they are public figures, so the paper can say anything about them with impunity, but when cut, I assure you that they bleed.
Hypocrisy
After bullying, the issue that bothers me most is hypocrisy. Newspapers love to point out what they perceive as hypocrisy--just ask Senator Larry Craig. But newspapers themselves are often more hypocritical than the politicians or industries that they cover.
For example, newspapers are quick to pounce on elected officials whom they perceive as intolerant. The media hounded Russell Pearce when he quoted the official name of a government program from the 1950s, and Democrats called for the removal of his Chairmanship.
Newspaper writers however, can say anything they want with impunity. Here's the Republic's Linda Valdez writing in support of European laws that restrict citizens from wearing "Jewish skullcaps and large Christian crosses." She supports laws against this type of "religious exhibitionism." What? An editorial writer in the state's newspaper of record writes in support of laws that make it illegal for Jews to wear Yarmulkes in public? Did she go to the David Duke school of Journalism? The industry reaction was...zero.
Bias enters into the equation as well. Editorial writers aren't the only ones who get to speak with impunity. Here's Rep. Steve Gallardo using a term that would get my kids grounded for life. Media reaction? Again zero. Can you imagine if Russell Pearce had used the term "Bitchslap?"
The hypocrisy meter red lines when someone dies. Some of the Republic's worst stories are about people whom the paper later lionizes: Jon Kamman played Captain Ahab and hounded Congressman Bob Stump in story after story. Keven Willey declared Carmen Cajero "one of the worst" legislators and the Republic Editorial Board sat on their hands while the Rev. George Brooks was unfairly investigated, hounded and indicted. Then when these three died, the Republic provided glowing editorials about how wonderful they were.
The solution isn't to ignore great Americans when they die. The solution is to treat them decently while they are alive.
Perhaps the worst hypocrisy is the way the Republic handles its own corporate affairs. For example, the Republic insists on using children in a door-to-door campaign in order to sell subscriptions. I've reported several times on the practice. Can you imagine what would happen if SRP used children to read meters?
Just when I thought the paper couldn't go any lower, I got a report that the Republic was using a developmentally disabled child to sign up subscribers.
Another example of the hypocrisy is the way newspapers treat their own workers. Newspaper management seems to layoff older workers first. While that makes economic sense--older workers are paid more and are more expensive to insure--it's ethically and legally suspect. But there's no one to cover it, so unless the fired employees sue, they have no advocate.
A friend of mine was 53 when the Republic laid him off; he had worked for the paper since high school. When he got the news, he was not allowed back on the newsroom floor; a security guard escorted him to his car and scraped the parking sticker off his windshield. His personal belongings arrived in the mail a few days later.
Remember that the next time you read a four-part series on corporate ethics.
Seinfeld Imitations
Then there are the Seinfeld stories. Some stories have great dramatic flair; they are labeled as "exclusive", sometimes copyrighted, longer than most stories and include fancy time lines and graphics. Yet when you finish them, you realize that...nothing happened.
Here's a breathless "exclusive" A1 story that I'm sure devastated the two people who were targeted by it. Read the story and ask why two single people who have devoted their lives to charity and haven't even been accused of wrong doing are humiliated in this front page "exclusive" story.
One of the worst examples of a devastating Seinfeld Story is the astonishing 7,000 word, A1, Sunday Republic Story that tried to tie John McCain to a local murder while claiming that he had an inappropriate relationship with singer Connie Stevens. By the end of the story, the Republic admitted that there was no evidence of McCain's involvement with the murder or with Stevens. What's worse, the story ran in February of 2000 in the middle of McCain's first Presidential campaign.
The McCain fiasco was before the rise of the Blogs, but it was so egregious that the industry actually took the extraordinary step of policing itself. American Journalism review published an analysis of the McCain piece and asked the obvious question. Why publish rumors about a presidential hopeful and the fact that the insinuations didn't check out? Why indeed.
Another example of a breathless A1 Sunday exclusive that implies great wrong doing but goes nowhere, was the hit piece the Republic did on Supervisor Andy Kunasek and his family.
I pointed out that all the allegations of wrong doing that were implied in the story were debunked in the same story. Fortunately, this Seinfeld piece was so egregious that the Republic Editorial Board came to Kunasek's defense, and actually rebutted their own paper's front page story.
Plain old Bias
Then there's the everyday bias. Reporters don't consider themselves liberal, so they think the legislature is filled with moderates, conservatives and "ultra" conservatives. The Capitol Times once claimed that the legislature had 24 "ultra" Conservatives. When they can't use "ultra," they have to get more creative.
Some bias is fairly harmless. Like Mary Jo Pitzl describing a political organization as "pro-woman" simply because it is pro-choice. That's why it's called bias. The reporter's views are so strongly held, that they permeate the stories. So those little slips are a fun indication of how the reporter really thinks. Naturally groups like Emily's list are "pro-woman" and by implication, groups like the Center or Arizona Policy are "anti-woman." So do you think the Center for Arizona Policy gets a fair shake from Mary Jo when she covers, say, the initiative to define marriage as one man and one woman?
Sometimes the bias is overt and malicious. The Employer Sanctions law is clear that violations have to meet the standard of "knowingly" or "intentionally." The media, of course, knows this fact, but in the beginning, they tried to systematically obscure this fact. Even if they have to make stuff up.
It's fun to watch what happens when a Republican and a Democrat each get in hot water. Notice in this post that the term "Republican" is used to describe Renzi, while "a Congressman" is used to describe Pastor.
Nonsense
Finally, there are the editorials that simply make no sense. Some are logically flawed to the point of incoherence. Some seem like they were written after a wild office party. Some are simply shrill and hysterical.
The logical flaws and weak analysis would be funny except that editorials still have some influence and they can occasionally tip the balance. With power comes responsibility
Aren't they Important?
Whenever I explain my glee, I always get a follow up question. "If the papers go away, who will hold the powerful people accountable? How will we know what's going on?" That questions assumes that corporate media with its group think and herd mentality actually break important stories. Think about the biggest stories of the last decade--the fall of the Baptist Foundation, Priest abuse under Bishop O'Brien, Colorado City, Arpaio's Jails--those stories broke in Phoenix New Times. The big story of the late 80s and early 90s was the S&L fiasco. That story broke in Barron's.
There are a few exceptions. Mark Flatten wrote an interesting series on water farming in 1990 and did a great series on RICO abuses in 1992. Mary Jo Pitzl wrote an interesting expose on the Board of Regents in 1990.
Ed Foster covered the poor management at America West Airlines in the early 1990s. That was a gutsy series of stories because America West was a big advertiser and one of its executives was on the Phoenix Newspaper board. Of course, the paper promptly fired Foster, so perhaps it wasn't not such a good example.
The rest of the stories are just press releases, that's why the paper is being written by interns. So I reject the argument that the populace will be worse off without a big dominant corporate media newspaper on everyone's driveway.
So that's it. By the way, Gannett Stock hit another low on Friday. I just want to take this opportunity to wish the Publisher a Merry Christmas.
In a letter this weekend to family and friends Andy Tobin decided to end his consideration for the Republican Congressional Race in Arizona District 1.
"It has been an incredible honor just to have been considered. I have felt a real appreciation for the sacrifice and yet the honor and trust to have serve my neighbors in Washington D.C." Tobin said Sunday.
Tobin will now concentrate on a re-election campaign for the Arizona House of Representatives this fall. Citing incredible pressures on state finance and his efforts in support of Arizona's education improvements. Tobin hopes to continue his efforts to grow Arizona's economy, protect our future and provide and defend Arizona's families.
Tobin said that "Gheral Brownlow, (former Yavapai County Supervisor and long time friend) and my dad John Tobin Sr. will be honorary chairman. I can't think of a better team to start up the '08 Campaign".
Tobin will be announcing his campaign team shortly and welcomes volunteers to contact tobinforstatehouse@yahoo.com to join in.
State Senator Pamela Gorman announced that she will form an exploratory committee to consider the race for Congress in Arizona’s Third Congressional District. Senator Gorman currently represents District 6 in the Arizona Legislature. She was first elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2004 after defeating 2 incumbents in the Republican primary. She was subsequently elected to the Arizona State Senate in 2006 after winning her primary by nearly 30 percentage points.
A strong conservative, Pamela Gorman was one of only two Republican senators to receive the “Hero of the Taxpayer” award from the Arizona Federation of Taxpayers. Senator Gorman is chair of the Senate Financial Institutions, Insurance, and Retirement committee.
“Congressman John Shadegg has done an excellent job representing AZ-03 in Congress,” said Senator Gorman. “His principled leadership on issues like taxation, the elimination of earmarks, and reducing the size and cost of government, has been nothing short of exemplary. I believe it’s vitally important that the next member of Congress from AZ-03 have the same commitment to fight for these important issues as Congressman Shadegg has.
“Over the next couple of weeks, I look forward to meeting supporters all across the district as we make our decision on whether or not to run for Congress,” continued Gorman. “I have been blessed with the privilege of representing many of the citizens of AZ-03 in the Legislature. Now is the time to decide if running for Congress is the best way to continue my service to my constituents and the citizens of this Congressional district.
Dear Congressman Shadegg,
Government spending and new government regulations are out of control in Washington. We need conservative leaders, not just when we are in the majority, but especially when we are in the minority. The residents of Congressional District 3 need someone who we know will stand against great odds for conservative principles, and I know that person is you. As a constituent and fellow conservative, I would like to join the 143 members of Congress and the vast majority of our fellow CD3 residents to sincerely ask that you reconsider your decision to retire from the US House of Representatives.
Thank you for your service.
Sincerely,
Dean Martin
Arizona State Treasurer
Americans distrust journalists, politicians and lawyers to about the same degree. This drives journalists crazy because J school teaches the kids that they are in "truth" business. Upon graduation, they learn that they are in the "sales" business, but the lesson never really sinks in. Here's a great example from the Arizona Daily Star.
The Star is unhappy with Legislative Republicans.
Arizona voters rejected a 2006 ballot measure to outlaw gay marriage, civil unions or domestic-partner benefits. But state Senate President Tim Bee is leading a new push to ask voters to place a definition of marriage in the Arizona Constitution as the union of one man and one woman.
Naturally the hapless Star believes this effort is unnecessary.
Indeed, it is laughable to think that the Legislature would change the existing law. That's why Governor Napolitano is trying to change the existing law through the rule-making process--a move that the Star supports.
We urge the state of Arizona to proceed with the adoption of a domestic partner benefits package. Many private and public organizations already do so —among them, this newspaper and many governments, including Tucson, Scottsdale, Tempe, Phoenix and Pima County.
One more reason not to trust the media.
Finally, remember that it was the Governor who put this issue back on the table with her illegal end run around the Legislature--and the Star knows it. Unfortunately for the Star, we know it too.
130 COLLEAGUES URGE SHADEGG TO STAY
Motivated by a letter signed by more than 130 of his House GOP colleagues urging him to forgo retirement and run for re-election, Rep. John Shadegg (R-Ariz.) could be reconsidering his decision to call it quits upon the conclusion of his current term, a well-placed Republican source said late Thursday.
The letter, spearheaded by Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), comes in response to Shadegg's surprise decision, announced Monday, not to seek an eighth House term. Pence, a former chairman of the Republican Study Committee — a caucus of conservative House Republicans — followed Shadegg in that post.
"As your colleagues, your fellow conservatives, and your friends, we sincerely ask that you reconsider your decision to retire from Congress," reads the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Roll Call. "John, you continue to inspire, embolden, and lead. The Republican Conference needs you here, the Conservative Movement needs you here, and the country needs you here. Please reconsider."
The letter was circulating on Capitol Hill on Thursday, although Shadegg had yet to officially receive it, according to the source, who nevertheless said that the "unprecedented" nature of so many Members appealing for Shadegg to reconsider was giving him pause.
"Never before have more than 130 members signed a letter asking a fellow Member to stay," the source said. "I'm sure [Shadegg] takes that seriously."
Shadegg raised more than $1 million in 2007 to close the year with $864,000 on hand, and had given every indication that he was going to run for re-election this year in his Republican-leaning, suburban Phoenix 3rd district. In the wake of his retirement announcement Monday, a half-dozen Republicans were contemplating running for his seat. Attorney Bob Lord, who had banked more than $500,000 at the end of 2007, is the likely Democratic nominee.
Late last year, House Republican leaders tried to persuade Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-Minn.) to reverse the retirement announcement he had made early in the fall, but he has yet to do so.
Reality is setting in.
Moody's Investors Service said it has downgraded the outlook on Gannett Co Inc (NYSE:GCI) to negative from stable, while it affirmed its existing ratings including the 'A3' senior unsecured and 'Prime-2' commercial paper ratings on the newspaper publisher.
Moody's said the downgrade reflects the risk of ongoing competitive pressure on newspaper advertising revenue -- exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown in the US and the UK -- is growing and will continue to weaken Gannett's revenue and EBITDA base and lead to deterioration in credit metrics.
The Arizona Tax Research Association has one of the few realistic realistic proposals to balance the state budget. There's some low hanging fruit that the legislature should adopt immediately. The rest won't be adopted until the members recognize that there's an actual crisis.
Shadegg's announcement started the rumor mill going. Why would he decide not to run for re-election, and why announce so late? Speculation has swirled that Shadegg knows that McCain might resign and that Shadegg's announcement puts him in a better position.
There are only two things wrong with this theory. First, Shadegg's office denies that McCain is going to resign and no one can figure out how Shadegg would benefit by choosing not to run. The Business Journal has picked up the controversy, and Drudge linked to to the Journal article, so the story is now national.
U.S. Sen. John McCain's office Wednesday countered speculation that the Arizona Republican would resign this summer to focus on his presidential bid.
McCain spokeswoman Melissa Shuffield told the Phoenix Business Journal that McCain has "no current plans" to step down from his Senate seat.
A summer resignation could create a mad dash to succeed McCain in the November election. Gov. Janet Napolitano would appoint an interim senator to serve until the November election if McCain resigns. State law requires that appointment to be of the same party as the officeholder.
Sen Waring is calling his supporters to the Capitol
I'm sure most of you have heard that Congressman Shadegg isn't going to run this year. I'm going to make an announcement about my plans tomorrow (Friday) at 1 pm at the state Capitol. I still have to work out the details, but that's the plan and I'd love to have you there. If you could let me know by email that would be terrific. Please rsvp if you plan to attend, so I can let you know if something changes. I know it's a work day on short notice and is out of the way for most of you, so thank you for even considering attending.
Sources tell me that Steve May is planning to run for Shadegg's seat.
I've mentioned Superintendent Tom Horne as a possible candidate for the District 3 race. Mr. Horne has responed in the comments section.
"I'm flattered to have been mentioned, but my term as state Superintendent of Schools is until 2010, and this is the most important thing for me to be doing."
Bad news for the L.A. Times from the New York Observer. This story is becoming so common that it doesn't get much coverage.
As we documented this morning, there's a big divide over who should run the L.A. Times, and before Sam Zell and publisher David Hiller announce their choice, they're getting some dirty work out of the way: Job cuts are coming.
Mr. Hiller writes that the paper will eliminate 100-150 positions at the Times, which includes ending open positions, and laying some off. Sam Zell writes in his own e-mail that he wants to add staff some day, but: "Unfortunately, I can't turn this ship from its course of the past 10 years within just a few months." Mr. Zell said there will be job cuts at all Tribune papers.
Arizona is towards the top of the foreclosure chart.
There's a new Arizona Supreme Court program called, "Lawyers Helping Homeowners" that pairs volunteer lawyers with clients to "negotiate a loan to save a home."
Chief Justice McGregor announced this program at her "State of the Judiciary" address last week.
Here's the link. www.azlawhelp.org
I don't know what's going to happen in the Presidential race, but after Obama's wins yesterday, one thing seems certain....Arizona's Senior Senator or Governor is going to resign within a year.
Without the requisite 2.5 children and a dog, Napolitano is unlikely to be a vice presidential nominee, but she has to be high on the list of Attorney General prospects.
It's been over 30 years since Arizona has had a governor who was entered and exited the office in the traditional manner--Raul Castro resigned to become Ambassador to Argentina; Wesley Bolin replaced Castro, but died in office. Bruce Babbitt moved up from Attorney General to Governor, and was elected governor in 1978 and again in 1982. Evan Mecham was elected in 1986, but was impeached and removed. Mofford moved up to fill Mecham's spot but didn't seek re-election. Symington was elected in his own right but resigned after being convicted of a felony. Jane Hull moved up to replace him and was elected in her own right in 1998 and Napolitano was elected in 2002.
Unlike most of the previous transitions, a Napolitano resignation would cause a huge wave in state government because Jan Brewer is a Republican. If McCain resigns, the immediate wave won't be as substantial. Napolitano will have to appoint a Republican and is likely to appoint a placeholder until the 2010 election.
However, a McCain Presidency would have huge long-term implications for the Arizona Political scene. Every current and former member of the state legislature thinks he is going to be ambassador to Aruba. Ever lobbyist thinks he's going to open a K street branch. Every blogger thinks he's going national--and no they aren't mutually exclusive; I'm going to be a K street lobbyist blogging from Aruba. (Actually McCain and I don't get along all that well, so I'm the only guy in the state who's definitely staying where he is.)
Whatever happens, it's going to be a very interesting year.
Good catch by the Goldwater Institute.
Let me be clear: the governor’s proposal would not only take away as yet unused funds. The proposal would also take away funds that children have been using to attend school, kicking some children out of the program.
We should not delude ourselves that this constitutes any savings to the state. Children stripped of scholarships will revert to the public school system, which will cost taxpayers more money than the scholarships they are given to attend private school.
With her signatures, Governor Napolitano created as much of an obligation to these children as the legislators who passed the bills. Nothing could be more cruel than to create an opportunity for a child and then to capriciously snatch it away.
Gannett stock hit another 10 year low yesterday. Here's the chart of the stock since its peak about five years ago. It's down nearly 66% since that point.
The signs of flight among Latino immigrants here are multiple: Families moving out of apartment complexes, schools reporting enrollment drops, business owners complaining about fewer clients.
While it is too early to know for certain, a consensus is developing among economists, business people and immigration groups that the weakening economy coupled with recent curbs on illegal immigration are steering Hispanic immigrants out of the state.
The Arizona economy, heavily dependent on growth and a Latino work force, has been slowing for months. Meanwhile, the state has enacted one of the country’s toughest laws to punish employers who hire illegal immigrants, and the county sheriff here in Phoenix has been enforcing federal immigration laws by rounding up people living here illegally.
“It is very difficult to separate the economic reality in Arizona from the effects of the laws because the economy is tanking and construction is drying up,” said Frank Pierson, lead organizer of the Arizona Interfaith Network, which advocates for immigrants’ rights and other causes. But the combination of factors creates “ a disincentive to stay in the state.”
State Representative Russell K. Pearce, a Republican from Mesa and leading advocate of the crackdown on illegal immigration, takes reports of unauthorized workers leaving as a sign of success.
I'm getting a lot of feedback and I need to add two names to the list. I have confirmation that Speaker Weiers is considering a run. Shadegg's longtime Chief of Staff Sean Noble is seriously considering a run. They would both be formidable challengers.
My original list of Martin and Waring stands as well.
The Shadegg posts are open for comments. I want to hear your opinions about the who is going to replace him, but if you say something negative about someone and don't use your real name, your comment is going to be gone almost immediately. (And using your real name is no guarantee that negative comments remain.)
Conservative GOP Rep. John Shadegg (Ariz.) announced his retirement on Monday, becoming the 29th Republican retirement this cycle.
"After deep reflection and consultation with my family, I have decided I will not be a candidate for re-election this fall," Shadegg said in his official retirement announcement
The 58-year-old Shadegg is in his seventh term representing Arizona's 3rd District, which includes northern Phoenix and Paradise Valley. The district went solidly for President Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Okay, I have to admit that I'm stunned. So what happens now? I have to think that Jim Warring, Pamela Gorman and Dean Martin have the upper hand. Martin would have to resign and he'd have to give up his current Gubernatorial aspirations, but I think he could just walk into the seat.
The ultimate irony is that my friend Jeff Hatch-Miller moved out of Shadegg's District so that he could run against Mitchell.
I was doing some consulting work in Zambia a few years back and I took the opportunity to take the land route from Zambia to Zimbabwe. Most people puddle jump from one city to another, so land boarder crossings are a rare and interesting experience. So much so that Paul Theroux wrote a great book called "Dark Safari" in which he documented his land journey from Cairo to Cape Town.
Zimbabwe was a mess even then. Robert Mugabe was exploring the liberal paradigm that well-intentioned smart people can improve the world if they are only given enough power. (It's hard to be a free market dictator). As Zimbabwe's productivity continued to falter under his redistributionist policies he became more aggressive at creating a "fair" economy. He eventually seized the white owned farms and let anyone farm them. Not surprisingly, the new occupants didn't have the knowledge, motivation or ability to run the farms and now they are fallow. Famine is widespread in Zimbabwe and the country is in anarchy.
Hugo Chavez is our hemisphere's best example of this type of madness. You will recall Chavez at the UN in 2006, displaying his copy of Noam Chomsky--Hollywood's favorite author--while calling Bush the Devil.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez tore into his U.S. counterpart and his U.N. hosts Wednesday, likening President Bush to the devil and telling the General Assembly that its system is "worthless."
"The devil came here yesterday," Chavez said, referring to Bush, who addressed the world body during its annual meeting Tuesday. "And it smells of sulfur still today."
Well, it's been a couple years since Mr. Chavez's speech, I wonder how things are going? Apparently not so well. It looks like the darling of the world's intelligentsia is taking Venezuela down the same predictable path that Robert Mugabe and countless other dictators have followed.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, in an effort to deal with food shortages nationwide, threatened today to expropriate farms and raised the price rice producers are permitted to charge.
Fallow farmland ``can't be allowed,'' Chavez said on his weekly television and radio broadcast, calling for the National Guard to take over farms with nonproductive lands. He also announced a price boost of 44 percent for rice growers.
It was at least the fourth time this year that Chavez's government has threatened to use expropriation to deal with shortages of milk, rice, cooking oil and other price-controlled basic foods. The decision on rice prices was another in a series of increases this year, following boosts in the prices of beans, cheese and ultra-pasteurized milk.
The government says the shortages are the result of smuggling of the food out of the country, hoarding by wholesalers who hope to force price increases and growing consumption as poor people get more disposable income.
Farm groups have repeatedly called on the government to remove price controls and criticized previous seizures of land and farm equipment as counterproductive.
Chavez also announced projects to improve farm-to-market roads and irrigation systems.
The Liberal paradigm is so seductive. If we just give the smart people enough power, they can give us a better world. That theory seems so obvious. That's why intellectuals, academics, billionaires, new paper publishers and the Hollywood elite fall for it. Mugabe and Chavez are again demonstrating the the paradigm, though seductive, leads to disaster. Don't expect the modern left to ever acknowledge that.
This New York Times article has a great summary of the recent steep declines in the Newspaper industry. The industry appears to be reaching a tipping point; the rate of decline is accelerating and major restructuring is becoming routine.
Newspaper executives and some Wall Street Analysts have been banking on the conventional wisdom that Internet revenue will replace print revenue. I've been questioning this wisdom for some time. Here's what I wrote last September in a post called "The Web Will not Save You."
To be sure, Internet revenue is growing at a rapid clip, but it will never be able to replace the revenue that used to be generated by print advertising. That revenue is gone.
Internet will not be able to support the overhead of the current newspaper model. The conventional wisdom is wrong; the business model is fatally flawed.
Today's NYT article is the first time that I have seen this fact acknowledge in print.
The paradox is that more people than ever read newspapers, now that some major papers have several times as many readers online as in print. And papers sell more ads than ever, when online ads are included.
But for every dollar advertisers pay to reach a print reader, they pay about 5 cents, on average, to reach an Internet reader. Newspapers need to narrow that gap, but the rise in Internet revenue slowed sharply last year.
Ninety-five percent less revenue from an Internet reader than a print reader. That's the exact number that I've been using in my previous posts.
The model is fatally flawed. The view that the industry is simply going through a rocky transition while readers migrate to the paper's websites is an economic fallacy--and now the industry is beginning to understand that reality.
It seems like the entire country is pointing out that McCain is a big winner last night, but one of the big losers is also from Arizona and has been lost in the shuffle. Tuesday was a terrible night for Governor Napolitano. Bill Clinton took a chance and appointed Napolitano as US Attorney in the mid 1990s. She used that position as a launching pad for her Attorney General race and ultimately parlayed it into the Governor's office. If it weren't for the Clintons, Napolitano would just be another high powered Democratic lawyer. Much to the surprise of many of her supporters, Napolitano turned on the Clintons and endorsed Obama, campaigned for him throughout the state and even went to New Mexico and Nevada on his behalf. He lost Arizona by nearly double digits. There hasn't been much local coverage about the fallout. Here's the Tribune's look at the race. In the days leading up to Tuesday's primary, Obama's campaign ramped up its efforts with several direct mail pamphlets and a new television ad featuring Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano. That ad aired Sunday during the Super Bowl. Here's how the Wall Street Journal covered it. Sen. Clinton won in Arizona, despite Sen. Obama's support from the top female politician in that state, Gov. Janet Napolitano.
To be sure, Obama may go all the way, or he may team up with Hillary as Vice Presidental candidate. If so, Napolitano's bet may still pay off.
But if Hillary goes on to the White House and Obama just goes back to the Senate, Napolitano will learn the lesson that everyone else who has crossed Bill and Hillary have learned...the Clintons never forget.
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