Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Will there be Writing on LaWall?

We've all read the outraged media accounts about Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas' Crime Prevention booklet.  In fact, the governor referred to the controversy in her State of the State address.

In her annual State of the State Address on Monday, Napolitano said: “Too often lately, we see this money go for TV commercials that amount to little more than publicity for an elected official. That’s the wrong way to use it. Pass a bill that uses the money for core functions of law enforcement.”

So imagine my surprise when I obtained a copy of a 52 page, color glossy book touting the accomplishments of Ms. LaWall and her office.  The book is so slick and thick that it looks like the advertising folder for a new BMW. 

To be sure, Thomas spent more money on his pamphlet and it was more widely distributed, but at least it was about crime prevention.  It wasn't just about Thomas. 

Here's a copy of the full  LaWall brochure. Browse through it and see if it can be characterized as anything other than a campaign piece. 

So far, the Citizen is the only newspaper I can find that has covered the story.  We'll see if the media and the Governor express equivalent outrage, but considering that Thomas is a Maricopa County Republican and LaWall is a Pima County Democrat, I'm not holding my breath

Not that they are biased or anything.

The True Cost of Light Rail

I had to go to the Secretary of State's office today, so I left ASU for the Capitol at 3:08.  I arrived at 3:48--about the same amount of time it would have taken by bike.  I've often wondered why the westbound 202 is a parking lot by 2:00PM.  After all, it's not rush hour and traffic is going opposite of the traditional afternoon rush hour direction.

When the 202 backed up, I made the mistake of exiting so I could take Washington.  That's when I discovered the real problem.  Light rail doesn't travel along Washington; light rail replaces Washington.  Washington used to be a six lane, one-way street that moved an incredible amount of traffic.  Since it was bounded on the south by the airport and the river, there was very little cross traffic.  Due to construction, Washington is now down to one lane and it looks like it's going to be down to two lanes even after construction is done. 

The argument for light rail was that even if it didn't have much ridership, every little bit would help.  Did the advocates ever disclose that the trains would permanently replace one of the most efficient east/west arteries?

How much more pollution do the cars packed onto the 202 emit when they idle from ASU to the Capitol, or from the Capitol to Mesa?

Light rail was supposed to reduce the commute and pollution.  It appears that it will make both worse. 

More Sanctions Bashing...

The media is on a quest to convince the public that the Employer Sanctions law will hurt the Arizona Economy.  Here's a classic example from this morning's Republic. 

Arizona's employer-sanctions law is driving illegal immigrants to leave the state, as intended.

The departures were first felt at stores and businesses that cater to such immigrants. Sales suddenly dropped.

Now, apartment complexes, especially those with affordable rents in neighborhoods with large immigrant populations, are feeling the effects. Individuals and entire families are moving, leaving behind empty apartments that can't be filled.

Hmm, apartments are vacant.  That's a bad thing and it's the result of the employer sanctions law. 

But earlier this week, the Republic spun this story as being a good thing and having a different cause. 

Hundreds of low-income families have safer, more affordable housing now that Phoenix has successfully reduced a vacancy rate in its public-housing program that was double the national average.

The city attributed the gains to the hiring of temporary workers last year to process applications, interview applicants and prepare units for occupancy. They also developed a program to help applicants pay their security deposit, which has allowed some families to move in more quickly.

Golly, the City of Phoenix spends over $700,000 to hire temporary employees to recruit families to move into subsidized apartments and for some reason the owners of private apartments can't compete.  Shocking. 

The same thing is happening in Tucson as well.  With a massive slowdown in the construction industry, the high rate of real estate vacancies state wide, and the massive efforts of the City of Phoenix to move families into subsidized housing, is it any surprise that low end private apartments are sitting vacant?

Just one more example of the media manipulating the facts to promote its own agenda. 

Cal Thomas on Flake

Jeff Flake has become the national leader on Earmark Reform.   Congressional Republicans could have gained some credibility on the issue if they had put him on the Appropriations Committee, but they rejected that option.  Call Thomas has an interesting column on the story.

The best opportunity Republicans had at their retreat to prove they see the light on spending was to name the tireless anti-pork crusader Rep. Jeff Flake of Arizona to the powerful Appropriations Committee. This would have been the equivalent of placing a preacher at the entrance to a house of ill repute, or a member of the Woman's Christian Temperance Union on an alcohol beverage and control board. The analogies are apt because too many politicians are drunk on power and behave like harlots with other people's money.

Flake, who was passed over for the post, would be the conscience of the committee, which has been devoid of a moral compass no matter which party controls the House. He sends out news releases spotlighting the "Egregious Earmark of the Week." Last week's was $1.12 million for potato research, which he characterized as "a waste of money no matter how you spell it."

In a phone call from the retreat, Flake told me his colleagues rejected an earmark moratorium after hearing pleas from some members that earmarks were the only way they can get re-elected. (Whatever happened to ideas?) He said Republicans called on Democrats to act first and that by doing so they missed an opportunity to stand on principle and win political points.

"We'll get there" on earmark restraint, Flake predicted, but not until after more Republicans are indicted and "an anti-earmark crusader like John McCain or Mitt Romney is nominated and elected president."

Let's Save a $100,000

This story is truly outrageous.  A guy commits armed robbery 30 years ago.  His lawyer screws up the case and the guy ends up with a life sentence.  So now he's 74, a model prisoner, expensive to incarcerate and an example of how screwed up our system can get.  There is no mechanism for releasing him, but the Governor can commute the sentence. 

Read the story.  It's obvious that she needs to step in and do the right thing. 

Maynard's co-defendants in the case each took plea agreements recommended to them by their attorneys. One pled guilty to a drug charge in another case, and all charges against him regarding the robberies were dropped. He was released from prison the next year. Another pled no contest to being an accessory to the crime. His conviction was treated as a misdemeanor, and he was placed on probation for one year, with one day of credit for jail time served. The third defendant pled guilty to two counts of robbery and received five years and one day in prison.

However, Maynard didn't take a plea, and his case went to trial. When it was over, he received three 30-to-50-year terms on three armed-robbery convictions. The judge decided these sentences would run consecutively, meaning that Maynard has to serve them one after another.

Clueless in Seattle

Former Republic columnist Jon Talton has surfaced in Seattle.  Talton was famous as the leftist business columnist who recycled the same three columns each week:  Globalization is going to take your job, the real estate industrial complex controls the government and Arizona Sucks.

Like most unemployed former columnists, he's started a blog.  His major themes are: Globalization is going to take your job, the real estate industrial complex controls the government and Arizona Sucks.

Here's how he describes himself.

I've been a working journalist for 27 years. Most recently, I spent seven years as a columnist at the Arizona Republic in Phoenix, standing up to that state's numerous cranks, haters, sleazy 'businessmen' and right-wing thugs.

Now I'm not a 22-year-old HTML kid and have little interest in writing about Britney's panties. So no newspapers are calling. I'm a writer living in Seattle. Aside from the risk of living under a bridge, I'm free to write the truth and raise hell. That was once the calling of the best newspapers. Now a few of us will try to carry it on as guerrilla journalists and rogue columnists.

Unconstrained by an actual job, he tells us what he really thinks about his former colleagues:

Show me a sick metropolitan area and I’ll show you cowardly, stupid, crappy local media. Nowhere was this axiom better proven than in Phoenix

On the way he takes on the business community,  Mormons and the Goldwater Institute.

Bottom-feeder businessmen who moved to Arizona precisely for “low taxes,” an easy regulatory environment and workers they can pay low and push around.

Mormons, who, for their many laudable qualities, are tribal, uncomfortable with transparency and diversity, and have been co-opted by the most extreme elements of the Republican party.

Meanwhile, much of the media are besieged by the hate-peddling right-wing echo chamber, exemplified by the “Goldwater” Institute.

It's stunning that the Republic gave Talton a platform for so many years. 

Even he isn't surprised that there isn't a market for his rantings.  In fact, he seems to have developed the fatalistic attitude of a martyr.  No one is enlightened enough to pay him to blog, so he's going to end up living under a bridge. 

Perhaps Talton needs to try the solution that has helped thousands of bloggers...Get a Job. 

The Myth Continues (Updated)

I'm attending a panel discussion on employer sanctions this afternoon.  The panel will be moderated by Paul Bender and the panelists will be: Mary O'Grady, State Solicitor General; Julie Pace, Ballard Spahr Andrews & Ingersoll; Tim LaSota, Maricopa County Attorney's Office; Paul Eckstein, Perkins Coie Brown & Bain.

I'm curious to see if the debate touches on the origin of the bill.  The media still refuse to admit that Governor Napolitano called for employer sanctions legislation as part of her State of the State address; Democratic Senator Bill Brotherton sponsored the first successful employer sanctions amendment; Rep. Steve Gallardo fought to keep the Brotherton amendment on the bill; the House Hispanic Caucus called sanctions their top priority, and Napolitano vetoed a bill that lacked sanctions--calling it "amnesty for employers." 

The legislature eventually responded to Napolitano's call and passed the sanctions bill by a two thirds vote.  That history is well known, but we still have distortions like this from last week's Capitol Times. Discussing the relationship between Legislative Democrats and business, the Cap Times opines. 

The opportunity to dramatically change the relationship with businesses, though, didn’t present itself until lawmakers debated — and ultimately approved — a Republican-backed law last year that allows the suspension and revocation of licenses belonging to businesses that hire illegal immigrants.

That sentence is wrong on two accounts.  First, it distorts the origin of the Sanctions bill, then it blames the Sanctions bill for the rocky relationship between some Republicans and the business community.

The history of the bill is well documented, the media simply chose to ignore it.  While the decline of business influence seems to be a phenomena that they don't understand. 

It's not really that the influence of the business community has shifted to the Democrats as much as it has simply decreased overall. Sure the Cap Times can point to one Democratic businessman in each house--and indeed DeSimone and Cheuvront both understand business issues--but that's not much of a shift.

The real story is that public financing has virtually eliminated the influence of the business community.  I've often written that prior to Clean Elections, candidates had to be acceptable to the party activists as well as to the business community.  The activists provided the organization and ground troops, the business community provided the financing. 

Now, the party activists are not only necessary, but they are also sufficient to ensure a candidate's viability.  And the business lobbyists?  Redundant.  It would be nice to have business community support, but they don't move actual votes and now they can't write checks.

So when Democrats proposed an Employee Sanctions bill that was supported by three quarters of the electorate, Republicans jumped on board. After all, they had nothing to lose. 

Eliminating the business community from the equation has served to make the legislature much more extreme.  Bob Burns, for example, is now considered a voice of moderation in the Senate.

The business community has responded by increasing its influence with the grass roots.  That's why the Arizona Chamber hired its Director from the State Republican Party.  They needed someone who knew how to swing votes without being able to write checks.  It's a recognition of the new reality. 

Eventually, the media will recognize it as well.

(Update:  Several of the commenters think I'm wrong on my history of the Employer Sanctions bill.  Before you accuse me of being ignorant, read my "Queen's Gambit Accepted" post and tell me where I'm wrong.)

 

Bushee to Leave the Republic

Poynteronline is reporting that the Republic's Ward Bushee is leaving for the SF Chronicle.  This will leave Randy Lovely squarely in charge.  Lovely is now the highest ranking openly gay newspaper executive in the nation. 

SAN FRANCISCO, January 25, 2008 -- Ward H. Bushee has been named executive vice president and editor of the San Francisco Chronicle, and will take over the top editor position of Northern California’s largest newspaper on February 1. Bushee was previously the editor and vice president of The Arizona Republic, and replaces Phil Bronstein who was named editor-at-large of Hearst Newspapers Division and The Chronicle on January 23.

The announcement was made jointly by Frank J. Vega, president and publisher, The Chronicle, and George B. Irish, president, Hearst Newspapers. The Chronicle is owned by Hearst Corporation.

"Ward brings a wealth of news experience and journalistic vision to The Chronicle team," said Vega. "He has long been recognized as an editor who instills strong journalistic values, integrity and sense of community at the newspapers he leads."

"The journalism community has regarded Ward as among the top newspaper editors in America and we are happy to have him as editor of The Chronicle," said Irish.

Profiles in Courage

I've long argued that public notice requirements amount to a state tax on business that is remitted directly to the newspapers.  I'm a big fan of disclosure, but give me a break.  No one reads public notices; they are expensive, hard to find and not searchable.  They are perhaps the least effective way to keep the public informed.  A common website would disseminate the information far more effectively at a fraction of the cost. 

The newspaper lobbyists argue that these fees are paid by businesses and even if the money is wasted, it's just another cost of doing business.  However, the dirty little secret that the Newspaper industry doesn't want you to know is that many of the public notices are paid for by taxpayers. 

Schools for example are forced to print their budgets in a newspaper of general circulation within the district, or the "official" newspaper of the county.   It's unconscionable to force schools to waste money in this way.  Schools have their own websites, the districts and the Superintendent have excellent websites and that's a much more effective way to distribute the information. 

These laws only exist because the newspaper industry pummels lawmakers who vote against the newspaper's financial interests.  It's a rare Legislator who is willing to stand up to the business interests of the Newspaper industry--even to protect education funding. 

Until Now.

Representatives Crandall,  Lujan and Tobin are the prime sponsors of HB 2369, a bill that would allow school districts to post their budget on their web site instead of forcing them to buy expensive and meaningless public notices. 

Be warned.  The newspapers will fight tooth and nail to protect this source of revenue, and they now longer by their ink by the barrel; they buy it by the tanker car.  Crandall, Lujan and Tobin will be vilified by the industry.  But you need to consider the source of opposition to HB 2369 and remember...it's for the children. 

Gov's Borrowing 2.4 Billion Dollars

The Governor's final numbers are out and she's planning go borrow an astonishing $2.4 Billion.

Here's a copy of the JLBC analysis.

Protecting Consumers from Themselves

The blog Mariginal Revolution provides a great example of a European governement policy that hurts consumers directly while claiming to help them indirectly.  The title, of course, translates to "The more things change, the more they stay the same."

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

A French court has ruled in favor of the French Bookseller's Union that Amazon's free shipping policy violates a law forbidding booksellers from offering discounts of more than 5 percent off the list price. Amazon was told to start charging for shipping within ten days or pay a daily fine. It must also pay €100,000 to the French Booksellers' Union.

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, however, is refusing to charge for shipping and is taking the case to the French public.  Way to go Jeff!  My advice?  Tell the state, laissez nous faire!

White Republican Mob?

I finally took a good look at my early ballot and I noticed something. Just below my name and address in bold all capital letters is the phrase "WHT REP MOB" Funny I don't recall registering that way.  Besides, I prefer the standard abbreviation "VST RHT WNG"

Shame On Pinal County

Drew Carey and Reason TV expose the incredible story of Pinal County's treatment of San Tan Flats.  It's an entertaining look at an unbelievable example of how government bullies can destroy lives.

After you see the video, you will want a link to the Pinal County Board of Supervisors. At a minimum, you should send them an email.  But I'm thinking recall petitions might be more effective.

UPDATE:  I just realized that this story was prominent in the Tribune as well.  I found the video on one of the national blog sites, but now I realize that most of you have probably already seen it.

UPDATE II.  Dude, I should get a TV.  I've been roundly mocked by readers who say this video has been everywhere.  By way of apologies, I'm offering full refunds to all readers who send in a self-addressed stamped envelope.  Please include $1 for handling.       

Writers Wanted

Nothing ruins an article faster than a weak lede. 

(And before I get 1,000 emails AGAIN, the first paragraph is called a "lede".  It's not called a "lead".) 

Take this example from this morning's Republic

Gov. Janet Napolitano would avoid deep cuts in state programs and services by relying on financing, reserves and fiscal maneuvers to close a state budget deficit pegged at more than $1 billion.

Why would Matt Benson write such a stilted and awkward lede?   

Why the euphemism "relying on financing"?  Have you ever heard some one use that phrase?  The legislative process is filled with terms of art and "relying on financing" isn't one of them.  When your wife asks how you afforded that new Corvette in the drive way, do you say I'm "relying on financing"? 

No, "relying on financing" is a euphemistic way of saying "borrowing."  Since the word "borrowing" is shorter, clearer and more powerful, we can safely conclude that Benson chose the euphemism for a reason.  My guess is that the "borrowing" has a negative connotation, while "relying on financing" doesn't.  So he intentionally picked the weaker phrase in order to make the Governor's proposal look better.  You know, just like they teach in Journalism school.

The governor has three categories of proposals.  Here are the second two: "reserves and fiscal maneuvers".  That, of course, makes no sense standing alone. Benson's choice of "relying on financing" instead of "borrowing", forces the reader to go back to "relying on" in order to make "reserves and fiscal maneuvers" make sense. 

Even when the reader manages to combine "relying on fiscal maneuvers" the phrase is still meaningless. 

I was about to try to write a better lede when I realized that other reporters would have covered the same story.  Here's Howie Fischer's lede in the Star.

Gov. Janet Napolitano wants to pay for an $800,000 bounce in the state budget next year through a combination of borrowing, shifting costs to local governments, diverting money away from road building and collecting $90 million from photo radar tickets.

He uses:  "borrowing, shifting, diverting, collecting."  Those are all words that I understand.  They are clear, short, powerful and self contained.  He also uses the more accurate and colorful "pay for an $800,000 bounce" instead of the less accurate "avoid deep cuts."  Plus he gets a bonus for parallel structure.

The reason I'm pointing all this out is not to tell you that Howie Fischer is a better writer than Mathew Benson.  My point is that Benson appears to have jumped through hoops in order sanitize the governor's proposal.  His choice of euphemisms like "relying on financing" and "fiscal maneuvers" confuses the reader and weakens the final product and the only explanation for such awkward prose is that it makes the governor's hard budget choices seem more palatable.

Not that they are biased or anything. 

Statewide Speed Trap

Governor Napolitano is proposing to raise $90 million by installing photo radar throughout the state.  I'm generally impressed with the Governor's political acumen, but photo radar is barely tolerated as a safety measure; it will never be tolerated as revenue enhancement. 

Frankly, I don't think you could design a program more likely to infuriate the electorate than closing the budget gap by tagging them with speeding tickets.  I guess it would be marginally worse if each ticket said:

"Thank you for doing your part to reduce the state's billion dollar deficit.  From Governor Napolitano's Office of Highway Revenue Enhancement."

Civil fines are supposed to motivate proper behavior.  Theoretically, when the state fines a utility for a broken gas line, gives a motorist a ticket, or seizes a drug dealer's car, the purpose is to modify the behavior of the perpetrator.  The goal should not be to raise money.  In fact, government crosses a dangerous line when it allows agencies to keep the fines they collect.  Pretty soon, state agencies are motivated more by budget constraints than they are by regulatory goals.  That's why my wife won't let us drive in Mexico. 

Surely, the Governor will abandon this idea within the week.  My guess is that you will simply never hear it mentioned again. 

I'll Be on Square Off This Sunday

I'll be on Channel 12's Sunday Square Off this Sunday morning.  The show is on right after Meet the Press, and usually starts at a few minutes after 8:00.  Darcy Olson from the Goldwater Institute and Joe Garcia, Viewpoints Editor from the Republic are the other guests. 

We discussed the State of the State, the costs of higher education, the Chandler rapist's status as an Illegal Alien, Thomas' fancy brochure and the Super Bowl.  Hijinks ensue. 

La Voz Silenced?

I'm getting calls from sources who say that the Republic is closing La Voz.  I called La Voz and asked them to confirm or deny the story and they referred me to a manager who is out of the office.  There are many situations where a lack of denial is tantamount to confirmation and this looks like it might be one of them. 

Last November I pointed out that the Republic was neglecting the La Voz website, and I had this assesement.

The Republic's acquisition of La Voz is like the guitar I bought in high school.  It seemed like a really cool idea and I was excited about it for a few weeks, but then my fingers hurt and I could only play three chords anyway, so it sat in the closet until my mom gave it to Goodwill. 

Then last December, I broke the story that Teclo Garcia was moving back to Texas and it looked like La Voz was actually sinking faster than the Republic itself. 

Now the word is that the Republic has decided to fold La Voz and when I call for confirmation, they ask me to call back later. 

This would be a stunning end to the Republic's experiment with Spanish media.

Turn out the Lights--AzCentral Traffic Drops 36%

For the past few years, I've been including a picture of a sinking ship when I write about the newspaper industry.  Today I'm showing you what the sea looks like after the ship has gone down.

That's because there is stunning news...

Editor and Publisher has published a list of Web traffic for the major newspapers and there is one shocking statistic in the group.

Visitors to AZCentral (part of the online arm of the Arizona Republic) dropped off 36.6%.

It's official:  The business model has collapsed. 

I have pointed out that web advertising pays much less than comparable print advertising.  The average newspaper subscriber is worth a little over $500 a year, and that number has been dropping.  Compare that to the loyal web reader who is worth less than $10 annually.

The web was never going to be able to support the cost structure that was supported by print advertising.  But there was at least a credible argument that the newspapers were going to be able to transfer their market dominance to the web.  Now that's gone as well. 

If you need proof that the business model isn't sustainable, let's examine a microcosm of the Mainstream Media--the columnist.

Word on the street is that the Star's Ernesto Portillo has lost his column.  That's inevitable.  If you add up a columnist's salary, benefits and overhead, it has to approach $100,000.  Dude, that's for 1,500 words a week.  Bloggers provide more content and generate more buzz for free. 

The Republic's Bob Robb is smarter than me and I think he's right on the issues, but give me a break, I have to leave his columns in the bathroom in order to get through one.  The days of a paper paying a senior guy six figures to pontificate three days a week are over.  Columnists are going the way of evening papers and foreign bureaus.

Don't get me wrong--newspapers make a lot of money.  The problem is that they make a lot less money than they used to make, and the plan to make the same amount of money off the web has failed.  Now it's time to allign the cost structure with the revenue structure. 

The newspaper of the future is going to have a lean and mean crew of college kids who write content all day long for $11 an hour.   I may be biased, but my guess is that the quality of the final product will be somewhat better than it is now. 

I Bid Thee Good Riddance.

Sources tell me that Editorial writer Sam Negri has left the Star to work for Pima County Administrator Chuck Huckleberry. I don't usually bid Good Riddance to editorial writers.  I'm happy to correct their work and point out their shortcomings, but it's not personal. 

Negri is an exception.

If I had to come up with a lifetime achievement award for "Most Disingenuous Editorial Series," it would go to Negri for his hit piece of Jonathan Paton over the Delores Huerta affair. 

Last May, Negri wrote an editorial in which he falsely claimed that Jonathan Paton "forgot" to follow up on his criticism of activist Delores Huerta using a mandatory TUSD assembly to inform students that "Republicans Hate Latinos."

I busted Negri here, and the Star was forced to issue a correction.  But Negri refused to admit that the correct quote unwound the entire editorial.  I pointed out here that if a writer fabricates a quote, then mocks the person who allegedly said quote, it's inadequate to simply admit the quote was wrong.  Real journalists admit that the editorial based on the fake quote was also wrong. Incredibly, Negri later tried to defend his fake quote by using the classic "Fake but Accurate Defense."

So now Negri joins the long list of Star reporters who have bolted for firmer ground.  Joe Barrios left to be a spokesman for TEP. Jane Erickson is doing PR for a Tucson hospital. Richard Ducote is doing PR a mining company.  C. J. Karamargin is working as spokesman for Congresswoman Giffords.

Golly, if you weren't careful, you might think the newspaper industry is in trouble. 

Lots of Little Tents

Independents are the fastest growing category of registered voters in Arizona and will soon surpass the Democrat party as the second largest party in Arizona. 

The hapless Arizona Daily Star has suddenly realized that this may be a problem. 

Independent registration over Democrat or Republican appears to be draining the two major parties of moderate, diverse thinkers who are interested in reasoned, centered political agendas.

We see the result as furthering the polarization of the parties, pushing Republicans to the far-right, conservative corner, and characterizing Democrats as über-liberal.

The Star provides a facile hypothetical profile of the independent voter who feels strongly about issues but doesn't feel a at home in either party, but the reality is that most independents are weak party identifiers  who used to register as Republican or Democrat, generally sit out primary elections and then vote a split ticket. 

In the past, that type of voter had to chose a party when he registered or face being completely excluded from a primary.  The rise of independent voter is a direct result of "reforms" advocated by the Star and Republic that allow independents to vote in either party's primary. 

The Star is beginning to understand the result.  Registrants who choose a party now tend to be loyalists, and party loyalists generally represent the more extreme ends of each party.  So the newspapers' efforts to eliminate partisanship have done what hard core Democrats and Republicans have been unable to do--drive the moderate DINOs and RINOs from the party.  The two big tents have been exchanged for a variety of little ones. 

Now the Reformers have awakened to the fact that it's harder to elect moderates in primaries if all the moderates call themselves independents.  That's because moderate candidates get little help from the formal party structure and it's expensive to identify and turnout intendant voters who in the past would have registered as Republicans or Democrats.  Moderate candidates have to target ALL of the independents even though only half will vote in their primary.  Conservatives simply have to target the remnant and they have a built in grassroots network to help. 

The reason political parties arose is that they help get people elected.  Allowing independents to vote in each party primary seemed like a way to OPEN the process and weaken the parties.  But the reformers are now realizing that they have actually driven the moderate voters out of the party by giving them a viable alternative.  So now the two major parties are more extreme and the legislators they elect are more extreme as well. 

Ironically, another major "reform" public financing--makes the problem more acute.  It used to be that a moderate Republican or Democrat could get the grassroots support of the hardcore party members, but still relied on the chamber of commerce crowd for funding.  Now the party structure is sufficient.  A hardcore band of conservatives or liberals can raise enough $5 contributions and provide enough logistical help to overwhelm a moderate who has Chamber support, but lacks party support. 

The result of these reforms is that the legislature is much more polarized than in previous years. 

Next Sunday's Republic will feature Richard DeUriarte's list of the ten greatest legislators.  You can be assured that Burton Barr will top the list.  Barr was a moderate Republican who served as House Majority Leader for decades.  He was just the type of guy the newspapers love--a moderate who could "get things done."

Barr probably couldn't even get elected in today's environment and he certainly couldn't become Majority Leader.  More importantly, the campaign finance reforms and party primary reforms that have been advocated by the state's newspapers would eliminate the tools that Barr needed in order to be successfully.  His ability to control campaign money and to discipline individual members was eliminated.

Now the legislators have their own financial power base and a tight party structure of hardcore Republicans and Democrats.  Moderates have no party structure and a hard to identify and organize mass of voters who simply call themselves "Independent."  So the hardcore partisans manage to elect their members to the legislature and men like Burton Barr no longer exist in the process.

It's great that the Star is disappointed with the results of the latest round of reforms.  Newspaper editorial writers need to begin to think about the consequences of what they write. 

Not that they are biased or Anything

Sometimes the Republic doesn't even try to hide its bias.  For example, former Mesa City Councilman Dennis Kavanaugh is running for the open Council seat being vacated by Tom Rawles.  Kavanaugh is a rare bird.  He's a reliable liberal who managed to get a Council Seat in the heart of Mesa. 

Check out how the article describes the race. 

Veteran, Greenhorn square off in District 3.

Ah yes, the classic match up of the "Veteran" and the "Greenhorn."  In case you didn't get the picture, the Republic's not done describing Kavanaugh.

Dennis Kavanaugh, a lawyer and a tireless advocate of arts and culture, is trying to return to the council after a four-year absence.

No, he's not a liberal who got thrown off the ballot for trying to circumvent the term limit laws.  He's "tireless advocate of arts and culture."

Here's how they describe his opponent.

Mark Yarbrough, a school volunteer and Little League booster, stepped into the council race after initially announcing he would run for mayor.

It's no wonder that they used that description.  After all, if the reporter had discussed the issues, he would have to point out that.

Mark believes that citizens are better at spending their money then governments are. The authority to spend money collected in taxes should not be abused and as a city councilmember, accountable to its citizens...

Ouch.  The Reporter wouldn't want to get that sentence into the Republic.  After all, the folks in Mesa might actually prefer the guy who wants to control spending instead of the "tireless advocate of arts and culture."

They should probably stick to the "Greenhorn" theme.

Make It Flake

Here's a unique way to make a point. 

The Whole Package

Academic success doesn't necessarily translate into career success.  That's because some people focus exclusively on academics and neglect the other aspects of life that are essential in order to relate well with other professionals. 

I have found this video to be invaluable in my career efforts. 

Back To School

I start my last year of law school today.  Technically I shouldn't finish until 2009, but I've been taking extra classes and summer school, so I'll finish a semester early.  It's been a great experience.  I can already feel myself becoming more arrogant and condescending.

Law school helps me to understand things that ordinary people can't possibly comprehend.  For example, the Arizona Constitution says that the state can borrow money, but then it has this sentence.

but the aggregate amount of such debts, direct and contingent, whether contracted by virtue of one or more laws, or at different periods of time, shall never exceed the sum of three hundred and fifty thousand dollars;

Before my legal enlightenment, I foolishly believed that this sentence meant that the state can't owe more than $350,000 at any given time.  But since the state is billions of dollars in debt and Governor Napolitano is about propose borrowing billions more, the sentence clearly doesn't mean what it plainly says. 

Fortunately I'm taking Advanced Statutory Interpretation and Arizona Constitutional Law this semester, so I'm sure that by the end, I'll be able to write a nice little memo that says the governor can borrow as much money as she wants.  My guess is that it depends on what your definition of "shall never exceed" is.

Wow, Actual Oversight

Jan Brewer has appointed former State Senator and House Majority Leader Lori Daniels as the newest member of the Citizens Clean Election Commission.

Some may consider that an odd fit.  After all, Daniels thinks public financing should be repealed and in 2004 she sued the Commission and claimed that the entire statute was unconstitutional.  But likely critics of the appointment and their media enablers don't understand the phenomenon that is the bane of regulatory bodies the world over---Regulatory Capture.

"Regulatory capture" is a term that describes what occurs when a regulatory body gets too close to the industry it regulates.  That's why the FAA "forces" the airlines to charge you $2.00 for head phones. 

A different type of regulatory capture occurs when a governing board is made up entirely of advocates for the agency it oversees.  For example, I think it would be great if the IRS had a governing board.  But don't waste my time by stocking the IRS Governing Board with appointees who think the IRS is the greatest innovation since radio.  I would quickly tire of hearing about how great it is that we have an IRS and how the Director and Staff are doing such a wonderful job.

Regulatory capture is made possible by a gullible media.  Skeptics are rarely appointed to agencies because the appointee as well as the appointer are subject to criticism.  The article goes something like this.  "Mr. Smith was appointed to the IRS Governing Board and Mr. Smith doesn't even LIKE the IRS.  In fact Mr. Smith has actually been (gasp) critical of the IRS.  Indeed, Mr. Smith once sued the IRS."   

It's easy to see the fallacy of the argument when I pick an agency as unpopular as the IRS.  It's a bit harder with the Citizens Clean Elections Commission which has a cult-like following of advocates who believe CCEC decisions are divinely inspired.  But let's face it even CCEC supporters have to concede that the agency has had a rough start. 

To his credit, Director Todd Lang has done a good job in a tough situation.  The CCEC governing statute is complex and poorly written, but because it was approved in a public vote, it is very difficult to change. 

I had a chance to talk to Daniels about the appointment and asked her about her previous opposition to Clean Elections.

While I personally would like to see the Law repealed I do believe it's important that the Commission adhere to the law.  I think that changes in the current actions of the commission are essential. 

Do you have an example of what you would change?

The law is very specific as to how violations of the law are to be handled. When a candidate violates the law, the act states that "the Commission shall (not may) impose a fine."  The law specifies a specific amount of the fine but the Commission uses that portion of the law as a starting place for fines not as a requirement.

Anything else?

I also believe that since tax payers' money is being used that there has to be specific accountability for candidates.  I think the current system has loop holes as well as traps that candidates fall into unknowingly.  I look forward to studying the law and doing my best as a commissioner to follow it to its fullest extent.  If changes are made they must either go through the Legislature or back to a vote of the people.

I think it could be a couple of interesting years for me while I'm serving.  I appreciate Secretary's Brewer appointment.

A couple of interesting years indeed.

Prime Numbers

Here's an interesting map from the Wall St. Journal.  You can see that Maricopa, Pinal and Yuma Counties figure prominently.

Subprime lending originally targeted the poor.  That's because for years Congress railed against the mortgage industry for not lending to low income--primarily minority--buyers.  The industry replied that low income borrowers were riskier investments and were likely to have high default rates.  Eventually the industry loosened its standards and created a wide variety of products that allowed otherwise unqualified buyers to borrow money. 

Although the loans were originally designed for low income borrowers who were otherwise unable to qualify, the reality is that it is the essence of human nature to want what you can't afford and buyers at all income levels used financial gimmicks in order to pay the inflated housing prices of a few years ago. In fact, it was this artificially high access to capital that inflated housing prices.

When the bubble burst, the lenders discovered that the borrowers indeed were unlikely to pay the money back and the lenders went bankrupt.  Now Congress is railing against the lenders for targeting low income borrowers. 

Here's Why People Hate Government

Most people have very little direct interaction with the government.  Contact is usually limited to jury duty, the post office, the IRS and the dreaded motor vehicles department.  These experiences are almost universally bad.  That's because without competition or a profit motive the government agencies are often unresponsive at best and downright cruel at the worst. 

The funny thing is that I've dealt with a lot of government employees and they are almost always wonderful.  It's the organizational dynamics that make dealing with the government a bad experience. 

Take Motor Vehicles.  My son turned the magic fifteen and seven months and is eager to get his Learner's Permit.  Motor Vehicles has a very helpful book that contains the rules of the road, the procedures to get a permit, and the locations and office hours of each branch.  So far so good.

Naturally, the branches are open 8-5 Monday through Friday--just like all the private sector businesses that serve the general public.  Golly, I recall that the last time I went to Blockbuster Video, I had to leave work early.  Okay, maybe not.  For some reason Blockbuster is open until midnight on every day except Christmas. 

But my son is understandably impatient, so I decided to make a real effort.  I checked the book and confirmed that the  Scottsdale Motor Vehicles branch was open until 5:00.  He gets home from school at 4:00, so I took off from work early and left downtown Phoenix at 3:15.  I picked him up at 4:00 and made it to the Office by about 4:35. 

That's when I encountered an employee at the entrance explaining to a group of angry parents and their dumbstruck 16 year olds that the office stopped handing out numbers at 4:30.  I pointed out that the book said they were open until 5:00.  She pointed to a sign on the desk that said they were open until 5:00 but you had to be in the office by 4:30.  Since I'm a year into law school, I mentioned that "not accepting new people" was the same thing as "closed."  She read me the sign more slowly this time. 

I responded that I had seen the sign, but that since the book said 5:00, I was wondering if there was some other place where I could have learned that I had to be there at 4:30.

She said "yes, of course."

I said.  "Good, where else could I have learned that I had to be here by 4:30?"

She pointed and said "It's on the door."

She obviously makes this speech dozens of times each day and could anticipate the follow up questions.  I asked, "where are the offices that are open on Saturdays?"  She handed me a photocopied map with three circles--East Mesa, South Phoenix and Surprise.

That's how government works.  So you will forgive those of us who are skeptical of government health care, government monopolies in education and government strategies for "economic development."

My son's at a movie tonight and I'm siting in the Paradise Bakery about a mile north of the Scottsdale Motor Vehicle Office.  I chose Paradise Bakery over the Seattle's Best next door because they have good tea, there are free cookie samples and free WI FI.  Since they know I could have gone next door, they seem happy that I chose to come here.   

When my son gets out of the movie, I'm going to get a sandwich to go, so I asked the guy behind the counter what time they close.  He said "9:00".  I asked what was the latest that I could order a sandwich.  He looked at me quizzically and said "9:00."

I love the private sector. 

Bill Gates' Last Day at Microsoft

This is pretty funny. 

Old News

More trouble for the newspaper industry. 

NEWSPAPERS WILL TAKE IT ON the chin in 2008, according to analysts with Goldman Sachs, who warned Wednesday of a potential double-whammy, as the industry's secular downturn converges with a broader economic slowdown. Overall, they forecast a 7.9% decline in revenue, a much more substantial drop than their earlier prediction of just 2.6%.

The predicted 7.9% drop is especially gloomy as it comes after several years of losses, compounding a 1.8% decline in 2006 and a roughly 8% drop in the first three quarters of 2007 compared to the same period in 2006 (fourth-quarter figures aren't yet available).
As always, the collapse in classifieds leads the way. In a note to clients, GS said: "We expect the classified categories to be very weak with the real estate, help wanted and auto categories particularly sensitive to broader economic activity." All three categories are also suffering from intense competition from the Internet.

The downturn in the housing market has led to a meltdown in real-estate classifieds in particular, with overall real-estate classifieds falling 24.4% in the third quarter of 2007, compared to 2006. Recruitment is down 19.7%, and automobiles 17.7% in the same period.

As a result, GS cut earnings forecasts for the New York Times Company, McClatchy, Gannett, Belo, Journal Communications, and E.W. Scripps.

Falling For It

I mentioned yesterday that Hillary's tears, talk of dropping out and predictions of a double digit loss in New Hampshire had the look of careful and professional expectation management.  It seemed clear that she was positioning herself so that a close victory--or even loss--in New Hampshire would be portrayed as a major comeback. 

Two weeks ago her 8,000 vote win would have been a major loss, but the Clinton machine has brilliantly led a stunned national media to think that it was over.  I pointed out that she was trying to revive the "Comeback Kid" theme.   Here's today's Republic right on cue.

Two 'Comeback Kids'

Hillary Clinton, all but declared dead as a candidate, staged a stunning comeback of her own in New Hampshire - the same state where her husband's nearly comatose campaign found new life in 1992.

Clinton's New Hampshire victory will be tough for political analysts to explain, given how many of them wrote off her former "juggernaut" after she lost dramatically to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in the Iowa caucuses five days earlier. Some pollsters had gauged Obama's New Hampshire lead over Clinton at 13 percentage points or more.

Before the count, reports from the Clinton campaign depicted dispirited, discouraged supporters all but ready to jump ship. Numerous Democratic senators reportedly were primed to publicly side with her opponent, Obama.

Now that was a comeback.

Konopnicki Declines to run for Congress

State Representative Bill Konopnicki has decided not to run for Congressional District one.  It seems to me that this leaves a void in the race that's likely to be filled by State Senator Tom O'Halleran.

O'Halleran is facing tough opposition for his Senate seat and may not consider the opportunity cost of a Congressional run to be too high. 

It won't be an easy race though.  Sydney Hay and Ann Kirkpatrick are running hard. 

The Comeback Kid II?

I smell a rat, and it smells like James Carville.  Hillary sheds a tear; aids talk of dropping out, Drudge predicts double digit losses.  Lowering expectations is the oldest trick in the second oldest profession and it looks to me like Hillary is positioning herself to be able to declare victory if her loss in New Hampshire is "only" single digits.  She was up 15 points two weeks ago, but she's managing expectations so she can give a "Comeback Kid" speech. 

Meanwhile, Obama's victory in Iowa has devastated Hillary, but the fallout in New Hampshire may land squarely on McCain.  McCain's New Hampshire base is comprised of Independents, not Republicans and the Independents have are able to vote in either primary.

Conventional wisdom held that Hillary would be so far ahead of Obama that Independents would vote in the Republican Primary and support McCain over Romney.  The Democratic race is indeed looking like a rout, but it's an Obama victory.  Independents with animosity toward Hillary may take advantage of the historic opportunity to put a nail in her coffin. 

If Independents chose to cast their ballot in the Democratic Primary, Obama wins big,  and it's likely that McCain will suffer.  And speaking of high expectations, it's hard to win big in New Hampshire in 2000 and then spin a second place finish as a victory. 

Today's going to be an interesting day. 

More Fallout for Willey

The firestorm over the Dallas Morning News' choice to give its "Texan of the Year" award to "The Illegal Immigrant" is threatening to engulf Keven Ann Willey and her paper.  Here's her response.  (The weakness of the writing will be familiar to Valley readers.)

We've engaged with readers individually via e-mail and telephone and in groups on the Web and over the airwaves. But let's be candid: 95 percent of all that reaction to our choice was negative. Readers we heard from were angry, insulted, in disbelief that we'd do such a thing. Some cancelled (sic) their newspaper subscriptions.

It was never our intent to anger readers – at least not gratuitously. Our goal was to provoke, yes, but in a way designed to elevate the issue of illegal immigration to the prominence it deserves and to increase the pressure on Congress to enact meaningful reforms to a system we called "a joke" in our essay.

The bottom line is that none of us should settle for snappy sound bites from politicians pledging gratuitously to "crack down" on illegal immigrants. We must push elected officials to move beyond the rhetorical appetizer and dig into the meat and potatoes.

Tim Carlson points out in the espresso pundit comment section that Michelle Malkin has more coverage.   

Political Junkies Will Enjoy This.

The Weekly Standard has an entertaining and balanced look at strengths and weeknesses of the Clintons and the complex relationship between Bill, Hillary and Gore.  It makes for fascinating reading. 

Between January 20, 1993, and January 20, 2001, the Clinton White House was home to three boomers of boundless ambition, high expectations, and vast self-regard, all three of whom thought that they ought to be president. Of these, only one--Bill Clinton--really was president. But the other two--his wife Hillary and his vice president, Albert Gore Jr.--firmly believed that they should be and viewed Bill's terms in office as the jumping-off place to their own.

Papal Election Unfair

The Republic is unhappy that oftentimes, the voters who pick the parties' Presidential nominees must be (gasp) members of the party.  After all, why should the Democrats be allowed to have the Democratic nominee chosen by Democrats?

The Republic has a good point.  In fact, I remain deeply disapointed that my pastor was not consulted in the selection of the last Pope.  Protestants pray to the same God; the Protestant Church is growing; the current selections process is dominated by Catholics.  That current Catholic-dominated process makes it more likely that the Pope will be Catholic and that adds additional stress between Catholics and Protestants. 

And don't get me started on the Mexican Presidential election.  It's unbelievable that a country that actually borders the United States and whose policies have so much effect on Arizona, limits its elections to Mexicans.  What's wrong with Arizonans?

Come to think of it, the Republic editorial board makes editorial decisions in a closed process.  Not only do they flout the spirit of the open meeting law, but they have systematically excluded nearly the entire population of Arizona.  There ought to be some sort of law....

Famous Last Words

If I could find one quote to sum up the arrogance and myopia of the mainstream media, this would be the quote:

"Against our customer base, it's just not a material number,"

That quote is former Republic wunderkind Keven Ann Willey's response to the furor caused by her editorial board's decision to give the "Texan of the Year" award to  "Illegal Immigrants."  Here's the full quote. 

The newspaper would not say how many readers actually canceled their subscriptions as a result of the editorial.

"Against our customer base, it's just not a material number," said Keven Ann Willey, vice president and editorial page editor. The Morning News has an average daily circulation of about 373,500 and a Sunday circulation of about 523,000, according to the Audit Bureau of Circulations.

Willey may be right that this alone isn't significant, but the Morning News is experiencing a death of 1,000 cuts.  Under Willey's editorial leadership, the Dallas Morning News has suffered a staggering decline in circulation.  When she arrived in Dallas in November of 2002, the Sunday subscription rate was 50% higher than it is today...and the number was rising. 

At The Dallas Morning News, daily circulation rose 2.1 percent to 525,532. Sunday circulation increased 1.1 percent to 784,905. (Nov. 2002)

Sunday circulation has plummeted from nearly 800,000 on her first day to barely 500,000 today. Why the steep decline? Some of those numbers may have been inflated due to the circulation scandal, but at least one Texas blogger attributes the fall directly to Willey.

The fact is nobody cares what the Morning News editorial board says anymore.  Ever since the Arizona hippie took over, the editorial board reads more like Austin and less like Dallas.  That's why their editorials ring untrue.  They are so liberal on all kinds of stuff from the death penalty to immigration...

Now the Illegal Immigrant is the Texan of the Year and Willey claims the outrage expressed by the community and the canceled subscriptions "are not a material number,"

Willey actually telegraphed early that she was totally out of touch with the Texas mindset.  In 1999 when Willey was the editorial page editor of the Republic, she approved a tasteless Steve Benson cartoon penned in the wake of the Texas A & M bonfire tragedy.

Steve Benson's "Texas bonfire traditions" cartoon showed a burning Branch Davidian compound in Waco, a burning cross in Jasper (where a black man was dragged to death), and logs from the Texas A(and)M tragedy.

As if approving the cartoon that mocked the Aggies before they had buried their dead wasn't enough, Willey followed up with the most astonishingly tone deaf move imaginable.  When Texans expressed their outrage--Willey cut the school a check for $10,000. 

Texas A(and)M University turned down 10,000 dollars The Arizona Republic sent after publishing a controversial editorial cartoon.  University President Ray Bowen wrote the Phoenix daily to say the contribution for the accident's victim fund was "a calculated effort to manage the public-relations problem now confronting your newspaper,"

Republic Editorial Page Editor Keven Willey said the donation "was a token of our sincerity"

We'll see how long the Morning News can continue to bleed under Willey's leadership.  For now, when the circulation drops 5% every six months, she can take comfort in the fact that:

"Against our customer base, it's just not a material number,"

Espresso Straight News is still Rocking and Rolling

When you want news and commentary straight from the source make sure that you check out Espresso Straight News. 

I Hate it When That Happens

I was putting up a 4x8 sign for a candidate in Glendale a few years back and I pulled onto the side of the road near an irrigation canal.  It was night, and I had a street light in front of the truck, so I just pulled the sign posts out of the back of the truck and installed the sign.  I was able to stand on the tailgate, so I had extra leverage and drove the posts really deep.  The signs were plywood in those days, so it took a long time to install them, but I was especially proud of this one.  It was high and level with good visibility and it was going to take a tractor to get those posts out. 

It was only then that I realized that the only way out was to back up.  I had completely blocked myself in.  So I know how these guys feel.  Notice that they are installing the bariers to keep cars off the sidewalk.  I think that truck is probably still there.  (I took the sign down and managed to get one post out and then parked on the street and rebuilt the sign.  I don't know what these guys did.)

Blowback

Salvador Reza has been leading the protests at Pruitt's furniture store while at the same time operating a day labor center in north Phoenix that was launched with public funds.  It looks like Reza's efforts to put Pruitt's out of business are starting to backfire. 

A contentious battle over day laborers and illegal immigration has spread from Pruitt's furniture store in east Phoenix to a day-labor hiring site in north Phoenix.

Since Saturday, about a dozen members of groups opposed to illegal immigration have been staging protests outside the Macehualli Work Center on 25th Stree