Red Shift
Real Clear Politics has some insight on the long-term effects of the Nation's growth patterns. We've long known that the red states are growing faster economically, that conservatives have more children and that Americans are moving from blue states to red states in droves. The next reapportionment will increase the clout of the red states in both Congress and the Electoral College.
The obvious question is whether or not the new residents will be assimilated into the red states, or if they will tip the balance and turn them into swing, or even blue states. Arizona is certainly bluer than it was 10 years ago, but it's still redder than it was 20 years ago.
Here's the article. On the other hand, Democrats own all ten of the fastest-shrinking Congressional Districts. The regions are heavily biased toward the Midwest and Northeast, where an aging population and a waning industrial base are hurting growth. All ten districts are based around urban areas, many of which are hemorrhaging population to suburbs.
Population Shifts Toward GOP
The new Almanac of American Politics is out, and statistics within the Bible for political junkies show a rapidly changing American political landscape. Population, statistics show, is draining from the Midwest and Northeast and pouring into southern, sunnier states. It will take a decade for the results to be evident, but one thing is sure: With changes as rapid as these, the electoral college math in 2012 will be dramatically different from what it is in 2008.
Of the ten fastest-growing districts in America, not one cast their ballots for John Kerry in 2004. All but one, Rep. Nick Lampson's Texas 22 seat, are held by Republicans, and Lampson, some will argue, is only back in Congress because his opponent didn't have her name on the ballot. Lampson is a top target of House Republicans next year and looks to be in serious danger.
But the nine other seats are not all safely Republican. Rep. Jon Porter will face a strong challenge in Nevada 03, the Las Vegas suburbs, while Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, of Florida's 5th District, represents a district that held a Democrat at the beginning of the decade. Arizona Reps. Jeff Flake and Trent Franks come in at numbers one and two, and new residents of the state have registered overwhelmingly Democratic, according to the East Valley Tribune. Neither Flake nor Franks are in immediate danger, but a generation from now, the districts will not look the same as they do today.
The fastest-growing Congressional Districts between 2000 and 2005, with change percentage:
1. Arizona 06 -- Flake (+36.3%)
2. Arizona 02 -- Franks (+34%)
3. Nevada 03 -- Porter (+32.1%)
4. Florida 05 -- Brown-Waite (+26.9%)
5. California 44 -- Calvert (+23.8%)
6. Texas 10 -- McCaul (+23.4%)
7. Texas 22 -- Lampson (+22.6%)
8. Texas 03 -- Sam Johnson (+22.4%)
9. Florida 14 -- Mack (+21.6%)
10. California 45 -- Bono (+21.6%)
On the other hand, Democrats own all ten of the fastest-shrinking Congressional Districts. The regions are heavily biased toward the Midwest and Northeast, where an aging population and a waning industrial base are hurting growth. All ten districts are based around urban areas, many of which are hemorrhaging population to suburbs.
None of the districts are in any real danger of going Republican -- save Rep. Julia Carson's Indianapolis-based 7th District, which is only in danger because of a perennially weak incumbent -- but if states and districts fail to keep pace with the rest of the nation's growth, Democratic seats will have to be cut during the 2010 redistricting.
The ten fastest-shrinking districts, with percentage of population lost between 2000 and 2005:
1. Ohio 11 -- Jones (-9.1%)
2. Michigan 13 -- Kilpatrick (-7.9%)
3. Illinois 09 -- Schakowsky (-7.9%)
4. Pennsylvania 02 -- Fattah (-7.4%)
5. Pennsylvania 14 -- Doyle (-7.4%)
6. New York 28 -- Slaughter (-7.1%)
7. Michigan 14 -- Conyers (-6.7%)
8. Illinois 05 -- Emanuel (-5.1%)
9. California 08 -- Pelosi (-5.1%)
10. Indiana 07 -- Carson (-5.0%)
Greg,
I am trying to figure out what your spin on this is.
1. People move to GOP districts because they are attracted to GOPers? or
2. People are moving away from D districts because they are tired of Democrat politicians? or
3. People are moving from D Districts into GOP districts and registering as D's which means that the GOP will have to work hard to maintain these districts in the future?
Posted by: ron | November 22, 2007 at 08:38 AM
Ron -- there really is no spin. Each of your points are valid, and taken together tell the story.
Greg's question is what will happen?
The answer rests largely on who is moving from the blue states to the red states. Is it middle class families in search of good jobs and affordable homes, and businesses who want a local government that does not view them as inherently bad? Then that favors the GOP.
Is it the so-called "creative class" -- social liberals with materialist pursuits --who have discovered that San Fran isn't all its cracked up to be? That favors the Dems.
Its a cliche, but people do vote with their feet. Its interesting that people (and businesses) are choosing the limited government appeal of the red states, despite what we hear about in the AZ Republic and the rest of the MSM.
One of people's primary concerns is to provide a better life for themselves and their family. Hence the migration to pro-business states.
Once food and shelter are secure, a lot of people are lulled into big government programs to secure their secondary concerns -- "free" health care, parks not houses, etc. Which leads to punitive business practices.
The once economically mighty states of New York and California are now being surpassed by Texas, Nevada and Arizona. In twenty years or so, I am certain the pattern will reverse itself. We will be blue and California will be red and everyone will be moving to San Diego.
Posted by: Chad | November 22, 2007 at 11:25 AM
Chad,
Thanks for the compliment.
I agree with your analysis - so we should al buy land in Southern California? (we may not reap the benefits but it will build the trust for the grandkids :) )
I was in BC Canada last weekend. People up there would like to join the US and create a North American EURO-like world.
We will have to do something - we can't sustain our economy on our present basis - China and the ECM can knock us on our rear in a day if they want to. The dropping value of the US dollar should be a warning to us.
The current strategy which says, "Well, noboby will mess with us because we have a bigger bomb" will not hold water to the real economic threat of China and/or ECM. Creating a powerful economic block which can do battle with China and ECM is our only hope.
We used to argue that the whole world wants to sell to us - we have the money - growing middle classes in Europe and Asia (inc. India) re challenging that view of the world.
BTW, which of those running for the big house on Pennsylvania Avenue are even talking about this issue?
Posted by: ron | November 22, 2007 at 11:41 AM
What your synopsis totally ignores is the growth of the hispanic community. Not only in the southwest but in the entire country. While not as mono-politically aligned as the black community, the nonetheless still vote 2-1 for the Democrats.
Posted by: Richard Kyle | November 22, 2007 at 12:28 PM
And the Republican presidential candidates and many Arizona GOP politicians seem to want to turn Hispanics against them by 3-1 or 4-1.
As David Brooks wrote, "they are competing to drive away Hispanic votes and make the party unelectable in New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Florida and the nation at large."
Posted by: Richard | November 23, 2007 at 06:34 AM
The big problem for the GOP is absorbing the blue state refugees into our culture.
The media is far to the left of the typical Arizonan, so the new arrivals do not get a sense of what makes us successful. Instead, its the "Phoenix sucks" syndrome with the media cheerleading for the same big government programs that led people in the blue states to flee.
To win the Hispanic vote, Republicans need to start appealing to their values -- strong work ethic, pro-family, respectful of religion. This is a natural Republican constituency.
The big problem Republicans have is the media and the Dems will prey on their fears and portray any dissent on immigration as racist.
Posted by: Chad | November 23, 2007 at 07:30 AM
People are leaving the punitive tax base in California and New York for the less repressive areas in neighboring states. As baby boomers retire, they are looking at life on a fixed income in constant danger from inflation, rising gas prices, and medical costs.
When the "Governator" of California makes TV commercials extolling the virtues of a vacation in the Golden State, he is showing signs of desperation. Personally, I spend as little time in California as possible given the politics of San Francisco and the lack of respect from La Raza/Reconquista types. Flying the Mexican flag over an inverted American flag does not inspire people to look fondly on the wasteful spending habits of California bureaucrats.
The old saying goes "I was a democrat until I got a job!" The updated version will be, "I was a democrat until I retired on a fixed income." The cash-cow taxpayers are moving to greener pastures with aging parents and Depends in one hand, and exorbitant tax bills in the other. OPM (Other people's money) that governments love to spend has suddenly and irrevocably become MPM (My personal money.)
Posted by: vet66 | November 23, 2007 at 07:34 AM
If the GOP wants to take state-wide offices in the future it should revisit what happened in 2002 when they lost the Copper Dome.
The assumptive values that GOP were turned on their head in that election.
With the AG and Gov office open in 2010, GOP must begin now to relook at what they missed in '02.
Posted by: ron | November 23, 2007 at 08:04 AM
Greg is putting the best possible face on the demographic datafrom an R perspective. It's what he does best. However, if Democrats are smart, they won't put too much stock in these trends.
Bottom line: Arizona, once a red state, is reddish-purple. It ain't blue, and I don't see it becoming blue.
But the purple color will take on more of a bluish tint if the Rs keep ignoring the true intent of voters. And don't feed me the tired old oatmeal of "less goverment," because people see that the R version of less government is less regulation of corporate predators, and more intrusions into your bedroom, and the rest of your personal life.
On the other hand, AZ will retain its reddish tint if Ds think they have a mandate for a sharp left turn.
Them's my analysis, at any rate.
Posted by: SonoranSam | November 23, 2007 at 08:36 AM
If we want to preserve GOP standing in AZ with all of the Dems moving in, we need to force districts to be competitive.
If Dems gain any more power in the legislature in time for the redistricting, it will hurt GOP districts. They are learning and preparing to game the current redistricting commission for their advantage by planting an "independent" on the panel.
We need to force the districts to be competitive. When more of them are competitive, the GOP message will win out.
Posted by: Sharpie | November 23, 2007 at 10:22 AM
Richard
I dont recall that New York votes for Republicans. Seventy Seven percent of the
state said no to a license for undocumented
immigrants, with the approval for the
gubernator in massive decline.
Michigan is proceeding to pass a business
sanctions law more punative than Arizona!
Michigan also votes republican?
Posted by: nick | November 23, 2007 at 11:43 AM
Ron,
The Financial Times of London released a
study this month stating that growth in
China has been much less than assumed.
The population includes 300 million persons
that subsist on less than a dollar a day.
Posted by: Nick | November 23, 2007 at 12:04 PM
China is a pot rapidly heating; at first, you see nothing but a lot of activity, making progress. Then it erupts and overflows it's borders with a rush of violent action. The wealth of that nation built by the blood, sweat, and tears of many, most of whom do not see any benefit and of which none have any political freedom is not a recipe for a stable longevity. It will boil over, and soon. The US has much of its debt held by China....YIKES!
As to the movement into CD 6 & 2...All I can say is this, if they want to live here, OK. If they want to work here, OK. If they want to enjoy the political process and recognize there were actually people with gray matter here prior to their arrival...even better! If they want to change Arizona to be like Minnesota or Wisconsin or whatever other nasal intoned locale they heralded from, GO BACK!
Numbers may be increasing but the guarantee of same-mindedness is not. I am continually frustrated after every LD meeting I attend when someone, from somewhere other than AZ has some idea about how we do things so terribly wrong in this state. They may even be a strict federalist but if the state is not doing what their concept of state should do, then they call on the big guys from DC to change it; the bucolic mentality of the locals being too dense to know how or why such things matter. This is not just a "red" or "blue" issue, the party lines and mentality can be greatly affected by one or two vocal pied pipers with a cast of supporters all with the same originating fire in their belly but without the skills to deliver.
Arizona could see a huge shift. The likelihood of 2 new CD's in the next round will be a factor that influences the make-up of current CD's. When the lines change so do the numbers. Effectively no one is the incumbent.
Posted by: Ann | November 24, 2007 at 07:05 AM
Good Analysis, Ann.
And if we ever get the State redistricted for state Legis maybe we will have more competitive districts.
ron
Posted by: ron | November 24, 2007 at 07:51 AM
Your analogy (China is a pot rapidly heating") about China could be taken different ways. There is a school of thought that China is seriously overheating (that is -- it's a bubble economy).
I was tremendously impressed with what I saw in my short visits to Shanghai, but there are very serious problems -- both the bubble factor and and huge differences between a few coastal cities and the interior.
My guess is that China will collapse economically soon, probably with a bigger thud than Japan in the 90s.
Posted by: BobH | November 24, 2007 at 09:59 AM
Ann,
I couldn't agree more about the LD meetings. More and more new comers will come and spout things (usually derived from hours of talk radio) that do not pertain to either local issues or issues of that district.
Note to new PCs: It would be best if you observed for awhile before you offer your pat answers and certainly be quiet before you've actually done any work! Work for awhile and then maybe people will listen - not because you talk the loudest at a meeting.
Posted by: Travis | November 25, 2007 at 02:10 PM
What is this attitude in AZ that we won't listen to ideas from other places? I learned this shortly after I arrived here from Toronto, Ontario 26 years ago.
I quickly learned to say things like, "Last night when I couldn't sleep I was thinking....." and everybody thought I had great ideas - and actually bought them :). (Some people actually though I was smart :) ).
God forbid, that I would admit that I actually saw these ideas at work other places!
Oops, now i just let out my secret!
Posted by: ron | November 25, 2007 at 03:16 PM
Ron, it has nothing to do with not listening to new ideas or appreciating previous experience as valuable. It has everything to do with broad statements of disgust with the
"whys" or "hows" of things here. Value judgments of a people who would be a part of such things without a clue as to any background that seem to flow absent any request for their views.
Posted by: Ann | November 25, 2007 at 08:32 PM
Ron,
Actually some of the best ideas I've seen have come from other places. It's about the idea of coming into a meeting and wanting to change everything based on misperceptions. If the ideas are sound, they can wait for someone to prove themselves to be a hard worker that cares about our district.
The other thing that wouldn't hurt would be for some of the current leadership to gather the old guard up and listen to them about their ideas. Perhaps they came in and changed too much and should get some perspective from those who've seen a couple of cycles.
It's really about listening and caring.
Posted by: Travis | November 26, 2007 at 07:36 AM