Dems Smell Blood in AZ

According  CQ Politics, Arizona Republicans may need to get a bigger boat.  (Of course, my recollection of the movie is that the shark doesn't make it.)

There is nothing like an election victory or two to make a political party forget its recent struggles with a renewed sense of confidence — and ambition. That is the case these days for Democrats in the generally conservative-leaning state of Arizona. After gaining two U.S. House seats in 2006 to break even with the Republicans at four apiece, they are trying for more in 2008.

One of their targets is a political no-brainer: The Democrats are targeting the state’s 1st District — drawn at the start of this decade as a politically competitive “swing” district — which three-term Republican Rick Renzi , weighed by ethics controversies, has left open to retire.

The other targeted Republican seat appears a more dubious prospect, though, at least on paper. The Democrats are going after seven-term Rep. John Shadegg , an activist conservative who has won easily in his previous elections in the 3rd, a largely conservative Phoenix-area district that gave 58 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004.

Democrats have been emboldened to challenge Shadegg by their 2006 pickup in the Tucson-based 8th District, where Gabrielle Giffords won to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe — and, more particularly in this case, by Democrat Harry E. Mitchell’s victory over six-term Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the 5th, another metropolitan Phoenix district that has political and demographic characteristics similar to those in the 3rd District.

The Democrats also have, in challenger Bob Lord, something they have lacked in past races against Shadegg: a candidate who has organized and raise substantial funds early in the election cycle.

Lord, a tax lawyer and first-time candidate, argues that he is “not your average Democrat.” He said he zealously supports the protection of civil liberties, among which he includes gun owners’ rights under the 2nd Amendment — a bedrock principle for many conservative voters. He also contends that his background as a tax lawyer makes him particularly attuned to the problems of overburdening private enterprise.

“I understand how business works and the effect of overly burdensome tax code or overly burdensome regulation on the business community,” he said.

Shadegg, undaunted, told CQ Politics that he will win an eighth term next year, calling his district solidly Republican turf that is “unwinnable” for the Democrats.

Lord burst onto the scene earlier this year with surprisingly strong first-quarter fundraising, and he has maintained his pace. As of Sept. 30, Lord had raised more money from individual contributors than the congressman — $388,000 to $362,000 — although Shadegg maintained an advantage in overall fundraising ($526,000 to $402,000) and in cash reserves ($451,000 to $332,000).

Mark Manoil — chairman of the Democratic Party in Maricopa County, in which the 3rd District is located — said Lord’s strong fundraising and moderate viewpoints would appeal to the district’s increasing proportion of independent voters. In October, 27 percent of district voters were registered independents, up from 21 percent in January 2003, while registered Republicans dropped from 49 percent to 44 percent of all voters in the same time period. Democrats still trailed considerably, but saw a less significant decrease during the same time period, from 29 percent to 27 percent.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which orchestrates the party’s national campaign for control of the House, signaled its intentions to back Lord’s bid by running a radio ad in late October attacking Shadegg. The ad targeted him for voting against legislation to expand the federal State Children’s Health Insurance Program, or SCHIP, which Bush vetoed on grounds that it constituted a budget-busting shift of health care costs from private insurers to the government.

Democrats hoped the message would hurt Shadegg in two ways: by making it appear that he opposes health care for kids, and by tying him to Bush, whose support nationwide has waned sharply since his 2004 re-election.

“Did you know Congressman Shadegg gets health care at taxpayers’ expense, but Shadegg and Bush are blocking health care for 10 million uninsured children?” the ad said.

Lord has picked up on the same theme. Saying he shares Shadegg’s “stated views” on fiscal restraint, he added, “However, I find that he tends to want to exercise fiscal restraint where I would least want to exercise it. I don’t think that after spending more than half a trillion on the Iraq war, we should be exercising fiscal restraint by denying health insurance to children whose families cannot afford it.”

Shadegg, though, deflects these criticisms and strikes a defiant tone about the election.

“I just want you to know this is a race that I am not concerned about, and I’m not concerned about President Bush’s effect on the race, and if Bob Lord thinks he can beat me in this district with President Bush, more power to him,” he said. “Let’s have the debate.”

Republicans also argue that support for Bush in the district is stronger than support for the Democratic-led Congress. “I think it’s a tremendous fallacy to think that voters are going to punish people for support of ideas that belong to somebody else who’s not even on the ballot,” said Sean McCaffrey, executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, referring to the president, whose eighth and final year in office is approaching.

Shadegg even baited Democratic Party organizations and individual donors to put money into the 3rd District race, saying they are squandering resources that their party would be better off employing elsewhere. “It is not going to be money well spent on their part,” Shadegg said.

Shadegg noted he has won all of his House races with at least 59 percent of the vote and with margins of at least 21 percentage points, and also pointed to Bush’s strong district showing at the top of the GOP ticket in 2004.

“Mr. Lord must be convinced that he’s pretty good, that he’s better than me and he’s better than President Bush ... and I’m thrilled that he thinks so,” he said.

Comments

[Janice]

If I weren't post-menopausal, I would offer to have John Shadegg's baby.

[ron]

I live in CD 3. It is a good thing that Mr. Shadegg probably doesn't get judged by constituent services because I have never had worse constituent services from any Arizona congressmen.

I even get answers from Rep. Pastor but not from Rep. Shadegg.

That Mr. Shadegg seems to think one year before the actual election that he is unbeatable regardless of the state of the economy, presidential leadership on international issues and who will be the eventual Republican Presidential candidate seems rather naive.

[Travis]

I can imagine the kind of "constituent services" that were requested by ron. Probably makes Janice's offer look reasonable.

[Thane Eichenauer]

I am glad to read there are articles out there where we can find what Bob Lord believes in. From the vast collection of press releases on Mr. Lord's site I was starting to believe voters would just have to assume Mr. Lord just believes in the opposite of John Shadegg as his web site has no apparent area for his positions AKA Bob Lord states "I am not John Shadegg".

Of course when it comes to guns, Mr. Shadegg doesn't do much better than Mr. Lord, both campaign sites each have a total of one article that references the word "gun".

[ron]

Travis,

I have contacted Mr. Shadegg's office less than half a dozen times in all the years he has been on the hill. I did get a form letter once.

Rep. Franks even answers my telephone calls! Of course, we know each other from the past.

I am supporting Gov Huckabee for President - he is my kind of radical evangelical - he actually says he believes in the Second commandment and practices it. (In on interview, Gov. Huckabee was asked if he was a 'red letter' Christian, He said, "No, but I am a Second Commandment Christian."