Arizona's Own Espresso Pundit

Republic Circulation Tumbles Again

Circulation statistics are out again and it's looking bleak. 

Blame the big metro papers -- again. The Audit Bureau of Circulations released the spring numbers this morning, revealing more plunges in daily and Sunday circulation.

As in the past, the losses are steep while gains are minimal. This is the fifth consecutive reporting period that overall newspaper circulation experienced big drops, despite easing comparisons. For all papers reporting daily circulation, the Newspaper Association of America said that daily circ fell 2.1% while Sunday tumbled 3.1%.

The Republic's circulation dropped a little over 1%, but remember that it is the paper of record in the fastest growing state in the nation.

The Republic's troubles are nothing compared to the Dallas Morning news.  The Morning news (or I should say Mourning News) lost more than 14% of its circulation in the last six months alone.   Long time Arizona political junkies will remember that Keven Ann Wiley left the Republic in order to run the editorial pages of the Morning news.  Now the paper is about half the size it was when she took it over.  Golly, who would have thought that a left wing agenda, shallow writing style and sophomoric analytical skills would turn off readers? 

Quarter Finals

State Treasurer Dean Martin serves as a commissioner on the State Quarter Commission and has been conducting a survey to get some feedback on the design for the state Quarter.  You can see the designs here.  The results are out and design number two won.  Design number 3 came in second.  I have the totals below. 

The Governor's survey hasn't been released, but it doesn't matter, she's clearly going to pick design number one.  (Just my humble opinion from four years of watching the 9th floor.)

UPDATE:  Unbelievable.  The Governor picked number two.  How could it be possible that she and I don't have similar taste?

Here's the results of Martin's survey.

13%   #1  Grand Canyon

50%   #2   Grand Canyon and a Saguaro Cactus / Desert Scene

26%   #3 Saguaro Cactus / Desert Scene only

<1%  #4 Powell’s Grand Canyon Expedition

11%   #5 Navajo Code Talkers

Really Thin Ice

The Project for Arizona's Future is mailing pieces like these into key legislative districts.  Someone is on really thin ice because PAF has steadfastly refused to disclose its donors.  Is any of the funding from corporation or unions? Has PAF registered as a campaign committee?  Is the money collected for these pieces within the normal contribution limits?

Perhaps PAF will try to argue that they are simply discussing issues, not expressly advocating against candidates.  After all, the pieces don't say "vote for."

Of course, they don't have to.  Here's ARS 16-901.01

A. For purposes of this chapter, "expressly advocates" means:

2. Making a general public communication, such as in a broadcast medium, newspaper, magazine, billboard, or direct mailer referring to one or more clearly identified candidates and targeted to the electorate of that candidate(s):

(A) That in context can have no reasonable meaning other than to advocate the election or defeat of the candidate(s), as evidenced by factors such as the presentation of the candidate(s) in a favorable or unfavorable light, the targeting, placement, or timing of the communication, or the inclusion of statements of the candidate(s) or opponents...

Let's see, These pieces are obviously "direct mailers."  Were they targeted?  Well, they were sent to district 9 and referred readers to a website that covers district 9.  It clearly identifies the candidates.  So far so good.  Are the candidates placed in an unfavorable light?  Definitely.  Placement?  There's no better placement than direct mail.  It's not like this is a billboard on I 40.

Of course, someone could argue that the election is a long way away so the timing factor hasn't been met.  That's a nonstarter.  We are in the era of the permanent campaign.  Just look at the speculation in CD 5 or the presidential race.  Can anyone really argue that we are not in the 2008 campaign season.

Some might argue that Stump and Murphy technically aren't  candidates.  Again, that's a nonstarter.  Prosepective candidates don't become actual candidates until they file their nominating petitions in late June of the election year.  If the court were to determine that campaign finance rules don't apply to unofficial candidates, then corporations and unions could engage in express advocacy with impunity until the filing deadline.  That holding would completely gut Arizona's campaign finance laws. 

Presumably, the people behind this piece have a good lawyer, but since guessing wrong is a class 6 felony, they should hope that he's a very good lawyer.

Mainstream Arizona tried this trick a few years ago, and they even had a good lawyer.  They lost big time.  Check out this case and then tell me that this piece isn't candidate advocacy.   

I'm sure the donor list will become public eventually...nothing like a subpoena to loosen things up.  I'll be interested to read (and print) who's on it.   

Statement from Congressman Rick Renzi

WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01) today released the following statement:

“For several weeks, I have been the subject of leaked stories, conjecture, and false attacks about a land exchange. None of them bear any resemblance to the truth, including the rumor that I am planning on resigning.”

Renzi Update

A source in Washington just emailed me to say that the rumor on The Hill is that the Renzi resignation is imminent.  Meanwhile, Mike Sunnucks of the Business journal has a good overview of the candidates in the race to replace him.  Mike and I each thought of Bennett and O'halleran, but his list includes Konopnick while excluding Mayes. 

His Democratic list is more complete than mine. 

Possible Democratic contenders include former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell, real estate developer and former state Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson, Sedona attorney Ellen Simon, Pinal County Attorney Carter Olson and former Phoenix TV news reporter Mary Kim Titla. Simon ran against Renzi in 2006 and Bob Mitchell is the brother of Tempe/Scottsdale Congressman Harry Mitchell.

Renzi Frenzy

In less than a week, speculation about Renzi has evolved from "can he get re-elected"? to "Can he finish his term?"  The conventional wisdom is that the answer to both questions is a resounding "no."  (Ted Prezelski is speculating that Renzi may be gone by Friday.)

The names of potential challengers surfaced immediately--Bennett and O'Halleran on the Republican side and Kirkpatrick and Owens on the Democratic side.  With events progressing as fast as they are, candidates are now being evaluated for their organization, access to capital and decisiveness.  (If Renzi steps down, he will be replaced in a special election.  Appointments can be made to fill Senate vacancies, but not House vacancies.)

On the Republican side, I would give the edge to Bennett.  He's probably stronger than O'Halleran in a head-to-head match up; he has a more solid base and the credibility of being a former Senate President.  O'Halleran would have to resign to run which would be a significant initial hurdle.

One Republican wild card would be Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.  She's from Prescott and has won two statewide elections.  She would also have to resign to run and getting through the primary would be a challenge but she would be well positioned for the general.  If Mayes gets into the race, O'Halleran is toast.  They are both moderates and I think she has more appeal to the moderate wing than he does.  I don't see any way that he could beat her in the primary and if they both run against Bennett, he is assured the nomination.  Gosh, moderates spliting the primary vote in a swing district and handing the nomination to a conservative who gets pounded by a strong Democrat.  That's beginning to sound like a pattern. 

On the Democratic side, I'm frankly without a clue, but that has never stopped me from speculating.  So I'll give you my thoughts and then we can wade through the comments and see if we get any insight.  I would lean toward Steve Owens.  He's run a Congressional campaign before (but not in this district) and as Al Gore's former Chief of Staff, he has tremendous Washington connections and access to capital.  I don't think Owens lives in the District, but frankly, that didn't stop Renzi. 

Owens' opportunity cost isn't as high as Kirkpatrick's because she would have to resign to run, but he could simply step away from DEQ for a while.  If he loses, he could go back to DEQ, or practice at one of the big firms.

How about Bennett v. Owens?  After the thumping that Republicans took in November, it would be difficult for me not to admit that a Republican would have an uphill battle in the race. 

 

Andy and Terry, are you Reading This?

Newspapers have a long history of employing children.  We may imagine Norman Rockwell pictures of paper boys yelling "Extra!" but the reality can be far different.  The Republic used to hire young children to gather at 4:00 or 5:00 am on Sunday morning and deliver stacks of newspapers on their bikes.  The children also went door-to-door collecting the monthly bill and seeking new subscribers. 

The Republic finally discontinued the practice of using children to deliver the paper and collect the payments when a one of its child employees was killed by a subscriber in the mid 1980s. 

However, the Republic still allows third party vendors to use children as bait to sell papers.  I reported extensively on the issue nearly a year ago. (Scroll down to May 22, 2006).  I say "bait" because the children are used as a prop.  It's the adult vendor who has a contract with the Republic.  The vendor brings a child to the door and the child recites a speech about staying off drugs and going to camp then the vendor asks you if you want to subscribe so the kid can go to camp.  It's a lot harder to say no to the kid than it is to the vendor.

Look, this is child labor pure and simple, but there's no one monitoring the vendors.   Who keeps track of how late the kids work or their conditions, who ensures that the kid really gets to go to camp?  At least the kids in Malaysia get paid.  The vendor isn't related to the kid, so it's not like he's walking around with his parents. 

I've talked to the Republic Publisher and they know that vendors use kids as props.  The Tribune has discontinued relationships with vendors who use children to solicit subscriptions but the Republic steadfastly refuses.

You would think that advertisers would get wise to the practice.  After all, the guy at the door isn't really subscribing, he's just giving $20 to the vendor so he doesn't have to see the kid's sad eyes.  The "subscriber" is probably not going to be poring over the Dillard's ads.

Naturally, you don't hear about the Republic using children to solicit subscriptions because the Republic doesn't cover itself. 

I've been talking about this issue for nearly a year.  I've spoken to the Publisher.  I've pointed out that the Editorial Board will pummel corporations for their business practices, but when you mention that the Republic relies on child labor to get subscriptions, the Board just looks at its collective shoes.  I haven't made any progress.

So let me address this to two people who should care.  Andy and Terry are you reading this?  Are you willing to take on the tough cases or are you going to stick to indicting politicians who don't get their paperwork right?

Here's a letter that I received over the weekend.

Greg,

It happened again last night -- the creepy salesman guy using the kid to tell the Republic's 'Big Sunday Paper' came to my apartment door at 8:00 in the evening.  I tried to tell them I read it on-line for free but they proceeded to tell me that it won't be free much longer.  I then said it was too liberal for me and the guy snapped back with a question of why I read it if it is too liberal.  I said because it is the only local paper out there right now.  Then he asked if I just wanted to at least help the kid win the trip to Six Flags and stay off drugs.  I politely said no and closed my door.   

This time around the sales guy was creepier looking.  He was wearing a ratty T-shirt, shorts and wasn't wearing a badge like last time.   

You are right that they are having hard times.  You can really tell they are getting desperate to sell that paper.

Ketchup Day

I have had a lot of people contact me about items that I really want to put into Espresso Pundit,  but I've been really swamped at work this week, so I'm behind on my phone messages and emails.  Give me another day to catch up and I'll call you tonight. 

Damage Control

Newspapers have their lowest readership on Saturdays and their highest readership on Sundays, so if you are a savvy media professional and your client has some bad news, make sure that it lands in the Saturday paper.  If you are really good, make sure that several bad articles land in the SAME Saturday paper. 

The APS media guy must be a genius, because these two stories will have much less impact on Saturday than they would have had on Sunday.  This is the lead story in Saturday's Republic.

Federal authorities are accusing a former engineer at Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station of illegally taking software codes to Iran and downloading details of control rooms, reactors and designs of the nation's largest nuclear plant.

Officers arrested Mohammad "Mo" Alavi, 49, in Los Angeles this month and charged him with one count of violating a trade embargo, which prohibits Americans from exporting goods and services to Iran.

Golly, who would have thought that an Iranian guy named Mohammed who worked at the Nation's largest Nuclear Power Plant might, you know, take stuff. 

Of course, Palo Verde is rated as the lowest performing Nuclear Plant in the nation.  So when "Mo" shows the software to his Iranian buddies, you know what they are going to say..."D'oh."

Well, APS can look on the bright side.  The good news about the security breach at Palo Verde, is that it kept this story off the front page.   

Pinnacle West Capital Corp. reported that Chairman Bill Post was paid $7.5 million in total compensation in 2006, according to papers filed Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The story contains this little paragraph that drives regulators crazy.

The company has reported substantial earnings increase, but it grapples with issues such as worker performance at Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, located about 50 miles west of Phoenix. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has downgraded Palo Verde to the rank of country's most monitored nuclear power plant.

What a nice combination:  $7.5 million in annual compensation and substantial earnings increase combined with poor performance.  The article fails to point out one other issue...the company is seeking a rate increase at the Corporation Commission.   

Renzi in the Wall St. Journal

Today's Wall St. Journal provides a level of detail to the Renzi coverage that I haven't seen elsewhere.  The article is by subscription only, but here's an excerpt.

DEAL BREAKER
Land-Swap Plan Causes Trouble For Congressman Mr. Renzi Offers Field To Mining Companies; Grand Jury Is Active
By JOHN R. WILKE

SUPERIOR, Ariz. -- As they dig for nickel, copper and other commodities in the far corners of the earth, the world's largest mining companies, Rio Tinto PLC and BHP Billiton Ltd., are used to solving geological problems. Here, though, the problems they encountered were political.

North America's largest copper lode is believed to be buried more than a mile beneath Apache Leap, the stark red cliffs that loom above this storied Old West town about an hour east of Phoenix. Resolution Copper Co., a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, wants to mine it. But first it needs Congress to approve a federal land exchange, under which Resolution would swap 5,000 acres of private land for 3,000 acres of public land near its planned mine.

In exchange for supporting the bill, the local congressman, Rick Renzi, a Republican, insisted on something in return: He wanted Resolution to buy, as part of the land swap, a 480-acre alfalfa field near his hometown of Sierra Vista, according to documents and people involved in the deal.

Resolution executives refused. For starters, they thought the land was overpriced, people close to the deal say. More troubling, they discovered it was owned by Mr. Renzi's former business partner, these people say.

Resolution wasn't the only party troubled by the congressman's demands. His chief of staff resigned and began cooperating secretly with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, according to witnesses and others close to the case. The FBI began a preliminary inquiry that was first reported in October, just before Mr. Renzi was elected to a third term.

That investigation has now become a formal public-corruption probe by a federal grand jury in Tucson. On Thursday, the grand jury authorized a search warrant of a Renzi family business. Investigators have uncovered evidence that Mr. Renzi received a cash payment from his former business partner, funneled through a family wine company, after a second investor group pursuing an unrelated land swap agreed to pay $4 million for the alfalfa field, according to people contacted in the course of the two-year investigation.

Mr. Renzi denies any wrongdoing and says that he intends to cooperate with the investigation. The search of the family business, he said in a statement Friday, is "the first step toward getting the truth out." His lawyer says the cash payment he received was to settle an unrelated debt.